South Korea to sharply cut LNG's share in power mix to 10.6% by 2038

South Korea will sharply reduce the portion of LNG in its power mix to 10.6% over the next 13 years, down from 28% currently, while increasing the role of nuclear and other carbon-free sources in line with national efforts to reduce carbon emissions and address rising power production costs, the energy ministry said Feb. 21.

The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy has finalized the country's long-term power supply plan, which also calls for lowering the share of coal in the power mix to 10.1% by 2038 as part of efforts to reduce carbon emissions.

Under the 2024-2038 Basic Plan for Power Supply, the share of LNG in the country's power mix will be reduced to 25.1% in 2030 and further shrink to 10.6% by 2038, compared with 28.2% in 2024.

According to the Basic Plan, the portion of coal blamed for air pollution will also decrease to 10.1% in 2038, from 17.2% in 2030 and 32.9% in 2024.

Conversely, nuclear's share will climb to 35.2% in 2038, up from 31.8% in 2030 and 31.4% in 2024.

To achieve this goal, South Korea will build two new giant nuclear reactors, each with a capacity of 1.4 GW, and aim to start commercial operations before the end of 2038. The country will also build its first small modular nuclear reactor (SMR) by 2036, with a capacity of 0.7 GW.

The Basic Plan also calls for the portion of renewable sources such as solar and wind power to jump to 39.2% in 2038, compared with 24.6% in 2030 and 9.6% in 2024.

Among the renewable sources, clean hydrogen and ammonia will account for a combined 6.2% of the country's electricity production in 2038 after reaching 2.4% in 2030.

Under the road map, 12 aging coal-fired power plants whose lifespans expire in 2037-2038 would be converted into hydrogen-based or ammonia-based generators.

"Under the plan, the portion of carbon-free energy sources in the country's portfolio, which stood at around 40% in 2023, will rise to 53% in 2030 and 70% in 2038," a MOTIE official said.

The new version of the Basic Plan aims to proactively achieve carbon neutrality by harmonizing the use of renewable sources and nuclear power, the MOTIE official said.

"By reducing the country's dependence on overseas fossil fuels, the plan will contribute to enhancing energy security," he said. The MOTIE renews the long-term power supply plan every two years.

The ministry forecasts the country's power demand to grow by an average of 1.8% annually, reaching 129.3 GW in 2038, driven by energy-intensive manufacturers, artificial intelligence, and electric vehicles, up from 100 GW currently. The Basic Plan calls for raising the country's power production capacity to 157.8 GW in 2038.