Fertilizers, Chemicals
July 11, 2025
US potash markets not likely to be impacted by 35% tariff on Canadian imports
By Logan Garcia and Hiron Pascon
HIGHLIGHTS
US to impose 35% tariffs on Canadian imports from Aug. 1
Potash market expected to remain unaffected, not covered under current tariffs
Canada main producer of MOP globally, US major importer
The US potash market is expected to remain unaffected by increased tariffs to 35% on Canadian imports starting Aug. 1, market US market sources said July 11.
The higher tariffs were announced by President Donald Trump in response to dissatisfaction with alleged fentanyl trafficking across the US-Canadian border. Trump is still negotiating with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, with a deadline set for the end of the month to negotiate a new trade deal.
The tariffs are not expected to affect goods covered under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement. However, with the US and Canada still negotiating a new trade deal, market participants remained uncertain of what position or potential tariff rates could end up being applied to potassium fertilizers.
"I think I agree, but there are people telling me there will be a 10% tariff on potash," a distributor based in North America told Platts on July 11 in response to the news.
Potassium fertilizers are covered under the USMCA under HS commodity code 310420 and were omitted from previous tariffs on Canadian goods separate from the suite of tariffs announced in April .
Canadian potash in the US
Canada exported 9.732 million mt of potassium chloride, or muriate-of-potash, in the first five months of 2025, down 0.1% from the previous-year period, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence's latest Global Trade Analytics Suite data.
The main receiver of Canadian MOP was the US, with 4.914 million mt imported for the period, accounting for 50.5% of the Canadian MOP export share. Brazil is the second-largest destination at around 1.767 million mt, up 31.6% year on year.
Canada is the main producer of MOP globally and exported 22.877 million mt in 2024. Russia, the second-largest exporter, supplied 16.226 million mt of MOP, in contrast.
In 2024, the US imported 12.056million mt of Canadian MOP, representing 52.7% of the consolidated volumes.
Platts assessedNew Orleans granular potash barges at $331-$334/st FOB on July 8 before higher indications rolled in from sources including trade at $335/st FOB and new offers for NOLA barges at $340/st FOB.
Platts is part of S&P Global Commodity Insight.
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