Gulf Coast Ammonia's status puzzles ammonia market

Ammonia market participants differ about when one of the world's largest plants, Gulf Coast Ammonia in Texas City, Texas, will be able to load its next cargo.

Initially pegged to begin production in 2023, GCA finally concluded its first ammonia trade on March 27, with Yara confirming it bought 15,000 mt to load on the Dancing Brave gas carrier to bring to Norway. Pricing details have not been disclosed.

Despite the initial spot trade, no new activity or offers from the plant have been reported. While some traders say the next deal is likely two weeks away, others say it's more likely to be three months.

The bulk of the ammonia produced at the plant is expected to load for Moroccan phosphate fertilizer producer OCP, which holds a long-term ammonia purchase agreement. About 10% of the plant's production will be traded on the spot market, according to arbitrage possibilities in short-term contracts, a source close to the project said.

Platts reached out to GCA, OCP and Mabanaft, GCA's operating partner, but no responses were received.

One trader said the Texas City plant is likely to face a "minimum" downtime of up to three months.

A source close to OCP, however, disputed this, saying he believes the plant is will face a shorter offline period.

"Startup is scheduled right after the ongoing turnaround," he said. "I believe two-three weeks is more accurate."

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed ammonia in the US Gulf at $390/mt FOB on April 16.