Turkish cement producers eye export opportunities amid proposed US tariffs on Canada and Mexico

As discussions continue about the potential impact of the proposed US tariffs on Canada and Mexico, cement producers and exporters from Turkey—the largest exporter of cement to the US—are watching the developments closely, expecting that the tariffs will be an opportunity to boost exports.

"Canada is a regular supplier to the US and there is a lot of border trade that happens between the two countries so we cannot envision the impact 100% but I think there will be a positive impact on the purchase of cement from Turkey," Abdulhamit Akçay, vice chairman of Turkish Cement, told S&P Global Commodity Insights. "The impact will be more on spot basis and demand will rise and increase [our] exports to the US."

US President Donald Trump announced tariffs on Canada, China, Mexico and the European Union earlier this month. While tariffs on China were implemented, those on Canada and Mexico were paused for a month and no further announcement has been made about tariffs on the EU.

The US is a key import market for cement. Imports of cement and clinker between January and November 2024 totaled 23.2 million mt, down 7% for the same period in 2023, according to data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS). Turkey has been the largest supplier of cement and clinker to the US, accounting for nearly 32% of hydraulic cement and clinker imports in the country, followed by Canada which accounts for 22%, according to USGS.

"[There are] a few specific players who have terminals [in the US] bringing in cement from Canada, and [they] will [either] halt supply or adjust prices and look at Turkey, which will have a positive impact on our exports," Akçay said, adding that some Mexican producers also import from Turkey so in the mid-term if the tariff is imposed, they will also import more from Turkey.

While there is palpable excitement about the opportunity, sources also watch for any negative impacts. "There is a risk. If the US cannot adjust their selling prices from Canada and Mexico, they will pass the prices to consumers, and it would be an inflationary step [which] may impact on the appetite of the customer, and people are concerned about recession," Akçay said. "In my estimation, they will try to achieve a balance, so most probably they will approach alternative sources like Turkey."

The US cement industry has already warned that the imposition of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico could adversely affect energy and national security while delaying infrastructure projects and raising their costs, according to a statement released by the President and CEO of the Portland Cement Association Mike Ireland, Feb. 4.

But not everyone is concerned. "The cement industry in the US itself is not worried or concerned. Tariffs will only increase the price and negatively impact construction, and that's not something that the government will want," Ad Ligthart, Partner, Cement Distribution Consultants, said. "The general impression is that the President is just announcing [these measures] but not planning to go ahead. He has given a starting shot, which will lead to negotiations."

Ligthart added that the Trump administration's immigration policies may have a more significant impact. "[Most] Texas labor is undocumented immigrants, and if you start pushing hard there, it could have an impact on construction, and I don't think the Trump government is aiming for that."

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed the Platts CEMDEX Turkey price, reflecting Ordinary Portland Cement CEM I 42.5R (bulk), at $52/mt FOB Feb. 6.

Commodity Insights launched a pioneering suite of cement and cement clinker price assessments Jan. 9. The assessments incorporate market data to reflect the value of cement, clinker, and associated freight in the spot market, taking into account bids, offers, trades, and other indicators, and providing insights into pricing at key cement hubs.