COP29: Specter of Trump victory hangs over lead-up to UN climate talks

A Donald Trump victory in the US presidential elections on Nov. 5 threatens to derail international climate negotiations at the upcoming UN Climate Change Conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, analysts and policymakers told S&P Global Commodity Insights.

If elected for a second term, the former president is likely to withdraw the US from both the Paris Agreement and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), significantly undermining US President Biden's negotiating power at the climate talks in Baku on Nov.11-22.

“While the Biden administration would likely still attend COP29 shortly after the 2024 election, its negotiating power would be significantly diminished with an incoming Trump administration, which could easily nullify any commitment made at COP29,” analysts at S&P Global Commodity Insights said in a recent note.

“This scenario may discourage other negotiators from engaging with US officials, potentially weakening ambition and stalling negotiations.”

Somber prospects

This comes amid subdued expectations for COP29, with little optimism for ambitious outcomes from Baku evident, especially compared to COP28 in Dubai and COP26 in Glasgow.

“Expectations across the climate ecosystem -- from policymakers, corporates and investors -- are low. However, the significance of the summit should not be underestimated. Granted, agenda wrangling and walk-outs are not off the table as navigating ambition, economics and the politics of the day, requires level-headedness and compromise,” said Ehsan Khoman, head of ESG Research at MUFG investment bank.

The global climate summit also comes against a backdrop of heightened geopolitical instability, adding to the already stark divisions between developed and developing countries on key issues like climate finance, carbon markets and adaptation.

Success at COP29 could set the stage for more ambitious national climate pledges, which are due to be updated next year, creating momentum ahead of COP30 in Brazil, added Khoman.

But many are still concerned that a Trump victory could trigger a disruptive start to COP29.

“If Trump wins… this is a disaster for climate change,” said Adair Turner, chair of the Energy Transitions Commission think tank.

“[Trump] may formally pull out of the Paris process -- and to have the biggest economy in the world out of the Paris process is clearly a problem, not only in terms of it taking the foot off the accelerator of getting to net zero but also because that empowers other people,” Turner added.

A Trump victory could also mean the EU having to assume even more of a leadership role in global climate policy, urging countries to adopt more ambitious climate targets.

Brussels recently revealed its negotiating mandate for COP29 calling for an ambitious outcome building on the commitments made in Dubai last year.

“The new [climate finance] goal should be designed on the basis of a broad, transformative and multi-layered approach, including various flows of finance and a broader group of contributors,” the European Council said Oct. 15.

Financing divisions

Climate finance is set to dominate talks in Baku, with world leaders under pressure to build the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) framework, which will replace the $100 billion/year fund that was set up as part of the Paris Agreement in 2015.

A substantive NCQG framework for a draft negotiating text for consideration at COP29 has already been released, laying the groundwork for talks.

The wide gap between developed and developing countries regarding the scope and structure of the NCQG underscores the complexity of reaching a consensus, with many expecting talks to get very intense.

“These unresolved issues will require careful negotiations and a political willingness to compromise if meaningful progress is to be made,” analysts at Commodity Insights said in a recent note.

Dirk Forrister, president of the International Emissions Trading Association, recently told S&P Global Commodity Insights that finance negotiations will be really tough.

Many analysts have noted that the US holds a pivotal position in formulating the new climate finance goal and a disruptive impact from US elections could hinder progress on critical topics.

The limited progress on climate finance over the years has fueled mistrust between developed and developing countries.

Developing nations have continuously raised concerns, saying they are unable to pledge further action unless they receive sufficient funds, while developed nations have shown a reluctance to significantly ramp up climate finance.