BASF battery sales to grow to Eur7 billion by 2030: director

Germany-based battery and chemical manufacturer BASF is targeting its battery materials business to achieve over Eur1.4 billion ($1.6 billion) in sales by 2023 and over Eur7 billion in sales by 2030, which would equal around a 10% market share, as it ramped up its cathode active material, or CAM, portfolio due to growing demand from the electric vehicle sector.

The battery business also assumed capital expenditure of around Eur3.5 billion-Eur4.5 billion by the end of the decade, covering CAM, precursor cathode active material and recycling investments, said Markus Kamieth, a member of the BASF's board of executive directors, in a Sept. 27.

Kamieth estimated the CAM market was forecast to grow by around 21% per year to a market size of 4.2 million mt, equivalent to a market value of roughly Eur100 billion, by 2030, up from 750,000 mt in 2021, driven by battery performance, safety and cost.

"So, within a decade we are really looking at the emergence of a major market opportunity that is fully within reach for a company like BASF, which is why this is extremely attractive us to participate in this strong market growth," he said.

Of the total CAM demand forecast in 2030, Asia is expected to account of 55%, Europe for 35% and the Americas for 10%, but Kamieth said beyond that, the CAM market in North America was also expected to increase significantly.

BASF also expects roughly 30% of all new cars to be battery and plug-in hybrid EVs by 2030, of which China and Europe would represent over 70% of global demand.

"This strong demand growth of global electromobility will drive two things. It will drive the demand for global capacity investment of CAM and it will also drive the demand for base metals," Kamieth said.

While BASF believes that both nickel-containing and lithium iron phosphate, or LFP, CAM chemistries – which were deployed in lower cost where cars where performance and range were not big drivers – would have a future and both would grow significantly Kamieth said he believed in the long run, nickel-based chemistries would be the prevalent technology seen in the market.

Nickel-cobalt manganese, or NCM, chemistry with a high nickel content was expected, he said, to be the dominant technology among CAM options and was expected to be leading the market in 2030 due to its high density and potential improved-cost position.

Security of metal supply

Kamieth also emphasized the important of metal supply and metals to the cost structure of a CAM, with about 60% made up of key metals used in the material, namely nickel, lithium and cobalt. BASF predicted that nickel and lithium, in particular, would be tight when the electromobility trend developed as projected, especially towards the middle of the decade, he said.

"Security of supply and competitive sourcing of these materials would be the key to success for everyone in the battery value chain," Kamieth said.

To secure the long-term and responsible supply of battery metals, BASF has signed along-term supply agreement with nickel producer Nornickel, as well as with miner Eramet to possibly develop a nickel-cobalt refining complex in Indonesia. More partnerships were expected in the coming years, he added.

Recycling was also becoming more relevant, Kamieth said.

BASF announced in June its plan to build a battery recycling prototype plant in Schwarzheide, Germany, at the site of its CAM plant, with start-up planned for early 2023.

The prototype recycling plant will allow BASF to develop procedures and optimize technology to recover lithium, nickel, cobalt and manganese from end-of-life lithium-ion batteries as well as off spec material from cell producers and battery material producers.

"We will of course then back this up with a full-scale investment at a later point in time -- probably towards the middle of the decade," Kamieth said. "This would also be an investment in Europe."