IEW 2025 INTERVIEW: India’s NITI Aayog set to unveil energy transition roadmap by May

India's policy planning body, NITI Aayog, is developing an energy transition roadmap that aims to recommend a multipronged strategy incorporating the perspectives of all stakeholders to achieve net-zero emissions by 2070, Rajnath Ram, the agency's adviser for energy, told S&P Global Commodity Insights on Feb. 10.

The planning body is collaborating with interministerial groups to study various aspects of the energy transition through modeling and scenarios, and plans to release the paper titled 'Energy Transition and Assuming Net Zero by 2070' by April or May, according to Ram.

"These groups are taking into consideration the views of all concerned stakeholders which will be affected as a result of this transition, bringing all on board," Ram said.

The groups "will be looking at aspects such as macroeconomic implications and the social impact of net-zero emissions, sectoral transition, climate finance, research and development, among others."

Although separate policies already address various aspects of climate and energy, Ram emphasized the need for a comprehensive energy transition plan to provide directional clarity and establish near-term targets.

For instance, India launched its National Green Hydrogen Mission in 2023, aiming to produce 5 million mt of renewable hydrogen for both domestic use and export markets.

Additionally, the National Policy on Biofuels, released in 2018, targets a 20% ethanol blending in petrol by 2025 and encourages the production of biofuels by units located in special economic zones.

"Once the document is out, the approval of the government would be required for policy formulation," Ram said, noting that the final meetings of the working groups are currently underway to set the recommendations.

Power, industries transition

The roadmap will consider options for reducing emissions in the power sector, which accounts for 35%-40% of greenhouse gas emissions, Ram said. However, coal will remain the mainstay because "we also have to address the issues of energy access, energy security and affordability."

"Our electricity demand has been increasing at the rate of 6%-7% on a year-over-year basis. We have to maintain coal capacity and increase nuclear to maintain the baseload power," he said, referring to the latest incentive in the fiscal 2025-26 budget that announced a 100 GW target for nuclear power by 2047.

"We have a good story of renewable power. The cost of round-the-clock power in the recent bidding is showing a declining trend, but this cost has to come down further."

To reduce emissions in industries, the working groups are exploring the role of alternative clean fuel sources in sectors such as cement, micro, small and medium enterprises, and aluminum.

"The cement sector could be one which will require carbon capture and storage plan. Aluminum, definitely would need clean energy sources because it is an energy-intensive industry," Ram said. "And in the MSME sector, there are various alternative clean energy options available."

India's Green Steel Mission, announced in 2024, is a comprehensive initiative designed to decarbonize the steel industry, aligning it with the country's net-zero emission targets set for 2070.

He noted that the fertilizer and refinery sectors are considered "sensitive sectors" regarding renewable hydrogen implementation, as they could be adversely affected by the high production costs of renewable hydrogen and any consumption mandates.

"The refineries have made investments for implementation of BS-VI [Bharat stage emission standards] kind of fuel norms. Fertilizer involves a lot of subsidies. Therefore, these sectors will slowly pick up penetration of green hydrogen," Ram said.

"We do not want to burden them with the additional targets. But still, many units of refineries are coming out with projects for green hydrogen.

Mission CCUS

Following the publication of NITI Aayog's carbon capture, utilization and storage report in 2022, the planning body formed working groups, and based on their inputs, the recommendations were submitted to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Science, Technology and Innovation Advisory Council (PM-STIAC), Ram stated.

"It was finally recommended that there should be a CCUS mission. The mission is housed in the Ministry of Power, which is now working to finalize it."

One of the key aspects of India's energy transition is methanol, which requires attention, Ram noted, as the country is a net importer of the compound. "This is a potential area where carbon CCUS can play an important role," he said.

Among other areas, "we are going to be installing nuclear aggressively. Hydrogen is also very important. Biomass is also given due focus."

"We have to explore multiple clean energy options for reducing emissions in our economy."

As India employs a combination of technologies for its energy transition, the process will unfold at its own pace, according to Ram.

"The countries that have declared their net zero by 2050 or so have already reached peak emissions. It has been observed that it takes almost 30 to 40 years to decarbonize their economy after peaking emissions.

"Although in terms of historical emissions our share is less than 4% of the overall carbon budget, but still, we are taking a bold step toward making our economy low-carbon," he said. "So, on all fronts, all policy facilitations are being worked out."