COMMODITIES 2025: Solar power to lead US clean energy capacity additions

This is part of the COMMODITIES 2025 series where our reporters bring to you key themes that will drive commodities markets in 2025.

Solar-powered generation is expected to lead the US in 2025 capacity additions despite an anticipated slowdown in installations as the moratorium on the US antidumping tariff expires.

Solar is expected to account for 51.7% of the capacity additions in 2025, with 63.1 GW planned for 2025, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence, which includes projects listed as announced, in early development, under construction and in advanced development. Battery storage is expected to account for nearly 35.5% of 2025 additions, while wind is to make up 12.9%.

Combined, the data shows 122 GW of solar, wind and battery storage have planned online dates in 2025, while only 36.32 GW of that is under construction and in advanced development.

Clean energy capacity additions are expected to be down slightly from Commodity Insights' 2024 expectations, largely owing to a decline in utility-scale solar additions resulting from the expiration of the moratorium on the antidumping tariff as the new year arrives, he added.

The focus of clean energy generating capacity has shifted to battery storage and solar, with wind installations dwindling.

"As expected, solar and batteries set all-time records in capacity additions in 2024," Willette said. "Onshore wind additions continued their 2023 struggles into 2024, installing markedly less capacity than previous records set in 2020 and 2021."

Bigger in Texas

Texas leads the 2025 US project pipeline in in all three resources, according to the Market Intelligence data.

Just as in years prior, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, which manages the flow of electric power for about 90% of the state's electric load, is expected to pace the US in renewable additions owing to its abundance of quality resources and favorable regulatory environment, Willette added.

ERCOT currently has 39.47 GW of wind capacity, 29.058 GW of solar capacity and 9.894 GW of battery capacity, and in 2025 expects wind to reach nearly 41 GW, solar 38.79 GW and battery storage 19.8 GW, according to its monthly capacity changes by fuel type report.

Texas ranks first in the nation for total clean energy capacity with 74.546 GW by the end of third quarter 2024. The state ranks first for wind capacity with 43.321 GW and leads the US in solar capacity with 23.924 GW, according to according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. It ranks second in battery storage capacity at 7.3 GW, following California, which has 11.675 GW. California fell behind Texas in solar capacity in Q2 and ranks second for total clean energy capacity at 40.136 GW.

Resource breakdown

Despite a slowdown due as the moratorium on the antidumping tariff expires, solar generation output is expected to shine bright in 2025.

"In 2025, we expect generation from solar to exceed the contribution from hydroelectricity for the first year in history," EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis said in a statement May 7.

In 2025, over 63.1 GW of solar capacity across the US has online dates, according to Market Intelligence data. The majority of that is in Texas with over 21 GW, followed by Arizona with nearly 4.2 GW and Nevada with 4.1 GW. Twelve other states have between 1 GW and 4 GW planned for 2025, while 31 states have less than 1 GW, which leaves four states without any projects planned for 2025 completion, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data.

Likewise, 43.97 GW of battery storage projects are expected to come online in 2025 across the US, according to the Market Intelligence data. Texas leads with 17.6 GW, followed by California with 11.7 GW. Arizona and Nevada each expect more than 4 GW to be added. Nineteen more states have between 100 MW and 1 GW planned, while 12 other states have less than 100 MW in the pipeline. Fifteen states don't have any projects planned, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data.

For wind, 15.71 GW of capacity has online dates planned for 2025, according to Market Intelligence data. Texas leads with 3.39 GW, followed by Oklahoma with 1.7 MW and Kansas with 1 GW. Twenty other states have less than 1 GW planned to come online in 2025. Twenty-seven states don't have any projects planned for completion in 2025.