US solar additions set to have record-breaking year with over 32 GW added in 2024

US utility-scale solar-powered generation capacity additions are expected to set a record again in 2024 as developers rush to install imported modules, the American Clean Power Association said Nov. 25.

Annual solar installations are projected to reach 32.125 GW this year, the ACP said in its inaugural Solar Market Monitor released Nov. 25. ACP collaborated with S&P Global Commodity Insights on the biannual Solar Market Monitor report, which tracks key factors shaping the US solar sector's progress.

"We've been saying 2024 would be a record year for solar," Sam Huntington, director of the North American power team with Commodity Insights, said Nov. 25. "Developers are pulling forward projects in anticipation of the tariff moratorium expiring at the end of December."

The uniquely high installations in 2024 are due to the requirement that modules imported during the anti-circumvention tariff moratorium be in service by December 2024, the ACP said.

Imported solar modules

In third-quarter 2024, the US imported 15 GW of solar panels, including 4.879 GW, or 32.5%, from Vietnam, 23% from Thailand, 13.4% from Malaysia, 11.8% from Cambodia and 8.4% from India, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. Likewise, Q3 cell imports totaled 4.2 GW, including 37.3% from Malaysia, 27.6% from Thailand, 19.9% from South Korea, 4% from Vietnam and 3.7% from Laos, according to Market Intelligence data.

Platts, part of Commodity Insights, assessed Topcon solar modules DDP for the US 5-50 MW range at 27 cents/W and for the 50-100 MW range at 25 cents/W Nov. 25, flat for the day. In addition, prices for US-assembled Topcon modules were observed in the upper 20 to lower 30 cents/W.

Market sources noted considerable uncertainty but also expressed a sense of optimism following the presidential elections. Looking ahead, the general consensus was that prices will rise next year due to higher tariffs and rates.

What's next

US solar installations are projected to be 16% lower year on year in 2025, the ACP said, adding that despite short-term headwinds, the outlook remained strong, with an expected compound annual growth rate of 6.6% from 2025 to 2030. Total installations in the US are forecast to grow 16% by 2030.

"We're expecting the market to contract slightly next year as a result of the pull forward, but now with the change in administrations, there is more uncertainty," Huntington said.

Under the new Trump administration, political uncertainty remains especially concerning tariffs and alterations to the Inflation Reduction Act, according to the ACP.

"The incoming administration and new Congress could attempt to change or remove certain portions of the IRA and accompanying guidance, but the IRA is unlikely to be completely undone," the ACP said.

Solar costs

"This inaugural report highlights how solar has solidified itself as a clean and cost-competitive energy resource for the US," John Hensley, ACP senior vice president of policy and market analysis, said.

Solar capital costs are expected to continue decreasing, with a projected 14% reduction by 2035, primarily driven by declining module prices, the ACP said. In 2024, the US average utility-scale solar levelized cost of electricity is $46/MWh, and it is expected to decrease to $38/MWh by 2030.

"The recent decline in polysilicon prices has improved the short-term LCOE outlook, but there is risk that new tariffs may increase capital costs and drive up the LCOE," according to the report. "In the long term, LCOE is expected to continue declining as capital costs fall and capacity factors rise."