MISO anticipates run-up in renewables in its footprint by 2025

In describing the future evolution of generation portfolios in its 15 state footprint, the Midcontinent Independent System Operator's planning committee said Nov. 11 that solar generation could expand in its 10 local resource zones between 13.8 GW and 17.4 GW by 2025, with wind generation expanding between 9.2 GW and 27.3 GW.

MISO also said over the same time period there could be between 26.5 GW and 33.5 GW of coal-fired generation retired.

The planning committee's Futures Resource Expansion and Siting report used the electric generation expansion analysis system, or EGEAS software, to project future load and cost performance of various generation technologies.

The report focused on three separate futures -- 1, 2 and 3 -- and extended its LRZ's additions and retirements out to the year 2040 in five-year increments. "Mixed in" was non-EGEAS data on facilities that have already been announced, MISO planning manager Tony Hunziker said.

Hunziker also said a final report on the additions and retirements will be published "as soon as it is ready."

Solar run-up

The report clearly suggests that MISO is anticipating a significant run-up in solar generation installations by its members, particularly in LRZs in Illinois, Indiana and Arkansas. In those three zones and in all three Futures, solar additions, for example, are expected to exceed 2,000 MW by 2025.

The estimates of future wind generation additions vary more widely.

Under Future 1, LRZ 1, which is Montana, North Dakota, Minnesota, a portion of South Dakota and roughly half of Wisconsin, is estimated to add 2.2 GW of wind by 2025, while under Future 2 the estimate is 2.9 GW. The MISO committee's Future 3 estimate jumps to 7.4 GW of new wind in LRZ 1.

Similarly, there is a wide divergence in estimates of new wind additions in Iowa by 2025. The MISO data ranges from 1.9 GW to 6.2 GW of new wind generation over the next five years in that state.

The planning committee's projection of possible additions of battery storage was zero for 2025 under Future 1 and 2, but totaled 2 GW under Future 3, with the most expected in Zones 1, 7 and 9.

In Zone 7, which is Michigan, the committee's Future 3 estimate is for 324 MW of new battery storage by 2025. For Louisiana and southeast Texas, or Zone 9, the estimate is for the addition of 321 MW of battery storage by 2025.

Natural gas additions, retirements

In terms of coal-fired retirements, Indiana's Zone 6 is expected to see between 9.2 GW and 11 GW of coal-fired capacity retired by 2025, while the Upper Midwest Zone 1 could see between 3.6 GW and 4.3 GW of coal retired in the same period.

Zone 5, which is the eastern portion of Missouri, could see coal retirements reach 3.8 GW by 2025, the MISO data showed.

Natural gas-fired facility retirements were projected by the MISO planning committee to run between 10.6 GW and 13.9 GW of retirements over the next five years. Zone 9, which is Louisiana and southeast Texas, is expected to see the most natural gas retirements of between 5.9 GW and 7.2 GW by 2015.

At the same time, MISO's analysis suggests that combined-cycle natural gas plant additions could run between 11.3 GW and 17.3 GW by 2025. The most notable increases are expected in LRZ 9.

ISO is anticipating a total of 1.26 GW of nuclear generation to retire by 2025 -- 448 MW in Iowa and 818 MW in Michigan.

As well, the MISO planning committee data showed it expects to see 373 MW of wind generation retired by 2025. It said Zone 1 is expected to retire 240 MW of wind, and Zone 3 122 MW of wind. Wisconsin's Zone 2 is expected to retire 11 MW of wind by 2025, the MISO committee said.