UK system operator details formidable challenge of reaching clean power by 2030

The UK's National Energy System Operator has detailed the monumental challenge of how the Labour government can achieve its goal of a decarbonized electricity system by 2030.

Nov. 5's Clean Power 2030 advisory report, commissioned by Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero Ed Miliband, concludes the target is achievable but requires a fourfold increase in flexibility, reform of planning, consenting and market policy, and delivery of up to GBP60 billion ($78 billion) of cumulative investments in onshore and offshore networks.

"There's no doubt that the challenges ahead on the journey to delivering clean power are great. However, if the scale of those challenges is matched with the bold, sustained actions that are outlined in this report, the benefits delivered could be even greater," said NESO CEO Fintan Slye.

NESO defines a decarbonized system as one where clean sources produce more power than Great Britain consumes, and where unabated gas-fired generation provides less than 5% of GB's generation in a typical year.

System data show that in the last 12 months, gas-fired power stations have met around 26% of GB's power mix, running at an average of 8.1 GW.

Assuming electricity demand growth of 11% between 2023 and 2030, NESO says some 35 GW of unabated gas-fired capacity would need to remain on standby for security of supply in 2030 when wind generation was low.

Installed wind capacity in the report's two scenarios, meanwhile, falls short of government targets to double onshore wind and quadruple offshore wind by 2030 (see table).

The government’s 2030 power system goal targets 55 GW of offshore wind, 50 GW of solar PV, 35 GW of onshore wind capacity and 10 GW of renewable hydrogen production.

S&P Global Commodity Insights forecasts 39 GW offshore wind capacity will be online by end-2030.

“Attempts to reach the 95% decarbonized electricity system are highly ambitious. Through 2024 to date, we have gas generation forming around 29% of total generation, a seven percentage point year-on-year drop largely underpinned by the surge in net imports,“ said Calum Andrews, UK power market analyst at Commodity Insights.

Following a year of record electricity imports in 2024, analysts at S&P Global Commodity Insights do not forecast the GB market will swing to a net export position until 2033.

Platts, part of Commodity Insights, last assessed UK power for 2025 delivery at GBP80.29/MWh (Eur95.52/MWh), falling to GBP63.45/MWh for Summer 2027, still at a premium to all its continental European neighbors.

NESO's 2030 CLEAN POWER SYSTEM SCENARIOS

Source: NESO, Clean Power 2030

80 network projects

Many of the steps to meet the 2030 goal are based on ambitious assumptions, such as contracting as much offshore wind capacity in the next two years as in the last six combined, or delivering first-of-a-kind carbon capture and hydrogen-to-power projects.

Then there is the ongoing Review of Electricity Market Arrangements, launched in 2022 and needing swift resolution to calm investor fears and secure GBP40 billion/year of spend to 2030.

But perhaps the biggest stretch is NESO's conclusion that 80 high-voltage network projects will need to be built on time to hit 2030 goals.

"More than twice as much transmission network needs to be built in the coming five years than the previous 10, along with accompanying enabling works, connections and distribution network strengthening," it said.

This will need up to GBP60 billion of cumulative investment to deliver around 1,000 km of onshore and over 4,500 km of offshore network and enabling projects.

The timeline is extremely tight, NESO said. "Key decisions on funding, awarding contracts, consenting and policy are needed within the next year to ensure construction on key projects starts as soon as possible."

Alongside the report, NESO has started a consultation on methodologies for grid connection reform in 2025.

The consultation proposes specific criteria and processes for reducing and reordering the queue, moving away from “first come, first served” to prioritizing projects ready to proceed.

The government will now consider NESO's advice in developing a clean power action plan later this year, the operator said.