US ELECTIONS: GOP appears to keep Texas House control, beating back a push for a greener energy agenda

Preliminary results suggest Texas Democrats' ambitious campaign to take control of the state House of Representatives fell flat, with Republicans holding their ground in the lower chamber and dimming prospects that a greener energy agenda could make inroads in 2021.

Clean energy advocates had hoped the election could alter the dynamic, after years of playing defense on tax incentives for wind energy, and create openings for bipartisan support for electric vehicles, distributed resources and energy storage. Democratic lawmakers also eyed crafting legislation to address oil and gas industry methane leakage and flaring, though passage of such a law would have been an uphill battle likely requiring support from the state Senate and governor's office as well.

Democrats have not had control of the Texas House since 2001. They targeted 22 seats held by Republicans in districts where US Senate candidate Beto O'Rourke either won in 2018 or came within 10 points of a win. Meanwhile, Republicans in the state went after 12 seats the Democrats flipped in 2018.

Unofficial results from the Texas Secretary of State suggest only two districts flipped, one in favor of Democrats and one for Republicans. Thus, the balance of power in the Texas House appears unchanged at 83 Republicans and 67 Democrats. Though some votes and absentee ballots have not been counted, any changes in tallies on a few tight races are unlikely to sway the balance of power.

Democrats picked up one additional seat in the state Senate but continue to be the minority in the upper chamber, according to preliminary results from the Texas Secretary of State. With 16 of 31 seats up for grabs, Republicans and Democrats each came away with 8 wins, leaving Republicans with 18 total seats to Democrats' 13.

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden's comments during the last debate on transitioning away from the fossil fuel industry struck a chord in the self-proclaimed energy capital of the world. Texas Republicans latched onto Biden's remarks that the oil industry would need to be replaced over time by renewable energy.

S&P Global Platts Analytics expects US oil production to contract by 1 million b/d this year and next year to average 11.3 million b/d in 2020 and 10.3 million b/d in 2021. It sees output recovering gradually to pre-pandemic rates of 12.8 million b/d by late 2023.