UK to reinstate de facto gas fracking ban, casts doubt on onshore wind growth plan

New UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has said he will reinstate the de facto ban on gas fracking, after his predecessor Liz Truss promised to scrap a moratorium on shale gas extraction.

However, Sunak failed to give his support to a relaxing of planning rules for onshore wind in England and Wales that the short-lived Truss government had promised under its growth plan.

Asked in Parliament on Oct. 26 if he would maintain the shale gas extraction moratorium pledged in the 2019 Conservative Party manifesto, Sunak said: "I've already said that I stand by the manifesto on that."

The Conservative Party 2019 election manifesto said: "We placed a moratorium on fracking in England with immediate effect. Having listened to local communities, we have ruled out changes to the planning system. We will not support fracking unless the science shows categorically that it can be done safely."

In a separate question asking whether Sunak would reverse his opposition to onshore wind, he reiterated he would stick to the 2019 manifesto, which left unchanged 2016's de facto ban on development.

"When it comes to energy policy, I stick by what we said in our manifesto," Sunak said.

That meant "more renewables, more offshore wind, and indeed more nuclear," he added. "That's what this government will deliver."

Fracking moratorium

The UK government under Liz Truss on Sept. 22 lifted its moratorium on fracking for the development of shale gas as part of a new domestic energy security push.

Truss saw shale gas as a potential tool for improving energy security and making the most of the UK's domestic resources against the backdrop of record-high international gas prices.

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed the UK NBP month-ahead gas price at an all-time high of 598 pence/therm ($70.44/MMBtu) on Aug. 26. It was last assessed at 184.88 p/th on Oct. 25.

The UK put in place a moratorium on fracking in England in November 2019 after an analysis of the environmental impact of work at Cuadrilla Resources' site at Preston New Road.

Cuadrilla was forced to suspend work at the site after a magnitude 2.9 tremor occurred in August 2019.

The Sept. 22 decision came alongside the publication of the British Geological Survey's scientific review into shale gas extraction, which was commissioned earlier this year.

The review recognized that there was only limited understanding of UK geology and onshore shale resources given that only three test wells have been fracked in the UK to date.

"It is clear that we need more sites drilled in order to gather better data and improve the evidence base and we are aware that some developers are keen to assist with this process," the government said.

"Lifting the pause on shale gas extraction will enable drilling to gather this further data, building an understanding of UK shale gas resources and how we can safely carry out shale gas extraction in the UK where there is local support."

Shale gas potential

It is estimated that the Bowland Shale gas formation in northern England alone holds as much as 37.6 Tcm of gas. Just 10% of that volume could meet UK gas needs for 50 years, according to shale developer Cuadrilla.

However, several academic studies have suggested the true resource is much lower. In 2019, research from Nottingham University said resources within the Bowland Shale formation could be up to five times lower than previous estimates suggested.

The research, supported by the British Geological Survey, said economically recoverable reserves of Bowland shale gas could be less than 10 years of current UK gas consumption -- implying a ceiling of around 800 Bcm.

There are also growing doubts about whether the geology in the UK is suitable for a large-scale shale gas industry to develop.