Turkey outlines renewable power plans to 2035

Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar outlined plans for the expansion of renewables Oct. 21, with the country aiming to quadruple installed wind and solar capacity to 120 GW by 2035.

Speaking ahead of the COP29 UN climate change conference in Baku, the minister addressed a gathering of Turkey's private energy companies.

The strategy had three main aims: supply security, energy independence -- which the minister defined as reducing dependence on external energy sources -- and net zero by 2053.

Bayraktar estimates that annual electricity demand could reach 510 TWh in 2030, which would represent a 54% increase from the 330 TWh reported for 2023.

The minister noted that Turkey's gas and power demand has increased by 300% over the past 20 years.

While installed power generation increased from 30 GW to around 114 GW, the country now needs to rapidly expand its renewable energy generating capacity to meet growing demand and reduce dependence on oil and gas imports, as well as to meet climate targets, Bayraktar said.

"We need to develop 90 GW of new capacity over the next 10 years, so around 9 GW/year," he said, adding that his ministry planned significant reforms to enable the private sector to make the estimated $80-billion investment necessary.

The 2035 target includes 5 GW of offshore wind.

Energy transition investment

Bayraktar stressed the need for Turkey's private sector to make the necessary investments but confirmed that he expected international stakeholders to also make contributions.

The minister announced plans to hold annual tenders under Turkey's YEKA system for new wind and solar capacity for at least 2 GW.

The first tender will open Oct. 28 for 1.2 GW of wind capacity and Nov. 4 for 800 MW of solar. These will be followed by a wind tender in January 2025 and a solar tender in February next year.

Approved projects will have a transmission fee exemption and guaranteed minimum offtake price of $49.50/MWh for the first five or six years of operation, followed by a fixed price for the next 20 years to be set by the tender.

Some 69 GW of renewable capacity has already been allocated through Turkey's various licensing and other systems and is at the investment stage, the minister said. This includes 45.5 GW of solar and 26 GW of wind at the investment stage, but their development needs to be sped up.

Turkey aims to reduce the time for new renewable projects to move from financial closure to construction, with current estimates of up to 48 months for official procedures to be completed.

"We aim to bring that down to between two [and] four months or even less," Bayraktar said, adding that they will allow projects whose environmental impact assessment process is still ongoing to apply for other necessary permits before the EIA has been approved.

Some projects will be made EIA exempt, he added.

Carbon market reform

The energy ministry also plans to reform state energy companies, including power generator EUAS, which operates hydro dams and older gas and coal-fired plants; grid operator TEIAS; state oil company TPAO; state gas company and gas transmission grid operator Botas; and state mining company Eti Maden.

The state-owned companies would have to become more flexible and operate in line with market principles to improve efficiency to be able to operate outside of Turkey, becoming regional players, Bayraktar said.

Market operator EPIAS would also have to be reformed to enable the development of carbon markets.

Other plans include $20 billion of investments in energy efficiency, as well $28 billion to be invested in expanding Turkey's existing AC transmission grid and to establish a new DC transmission grid.

By 2035, the current AC system will be expanded to 90,500 km from 75,414 km, with the number of transformers increased to 942 from 788.

Turkey's power export capacity will be increased to 6.75 GW from 2.3 GW, with import capacity also to be increased.

In addition, Turkey plans 14,700 km of HVDC transmission lines with capacity of around 40 GW and 40 new converter stations.

Turkey's renewables capacity (in MW)