Floridians flee Gulf Coast as Milton nears as potential worst storm in 100 years

Floridians are evacuating the peninsula as Hurricane Milton is forecast to make landfall Oct. 9 on the Gulf Coast as a major storm, even as electric utilities in the Carolinas and Georgia restore service to more than 160,000 customers still offline after the Sept. 26 landfall of Hurricane Helene as a major hurricane on Florida’s Big Bend Gulf Coast region.

The Tallahassee Democrat newspaper reported Oct. 8 that mandatory evacuation orders had been issued for at least parts of 11 counties along Florida’s Gulf Coast, as President Joe Biden said during a meeting that Milton “could be one of the worst storms in 100 years in Florida.”

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis announced Oct. 8 that tolls have been suspended on highways in West and Central Florida, plus Alligator Alley through the Everglades and the Interstate 595 Express, roads that could be used for evacuation. The Florida Department of Transportation has been working to clear drainage systems, and it has worked with the Florida Highway Patrol to implement Emergency Shoulder Use on certain roads.

The National Hurricane Center at 1 pm CT said the storm, which had overnight weakened to a Category 4 storm with wind speeds under 155 mph, had since regained that wind speed.

Storm surge estimates

“While fluctuations in intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida,” the Hurricane center said, with storm surge ranging from 10 to 15 feet at the heavily populated Tampa Bay area.

AccuWeather around 3 pm CT Oct. 8 said it foresees as much as 23 feet of storm surge potential in the Tampa Bay and Sarasota regions.

“Hurricane Milton is now rated a 5 on the AccuWeather RealImpact Scale for hurricanes,” AccuWeather said, adding that economic losses could exceed $200 billion. “The last time a 5 on the AccuWeather RealImpact Scale for hurricanes was issued was ahead of Hurricane Ian’s destructive landfall near Fort Myers Beach, Florida, in 2022.”

As context, Ian caused Florida Reliability Coordinating Council peakloads to drop by 16.4 GW, or 35.3%. Power Burn fell by 3.3 Bcf/d, or 41.3%. Platts-assessed day-ahead on-peak power indexes plunged by more than 50% to $60.63/MWh. Platts is part of S&P Global Commodity Insights.

“There is no recent precedent for a major hurricane to take this path toward Florida,” said Dan DePodwin, AccuWeather director of forecasting operations. “Previous storms, including Helene and Ian, are likely no representative of the potential impacts to the Tampa area, including Sarasota, Bradenton, St. Petersburg and Clearwater.”

AccuWeather’s RealImpact Scale is based on wind speed, flooding rain, storm surge and economic damage and loss.

“Flooding may last days to weeks,” AccuWeather said. “Structural damage to buildings, power outages and trees down, as well as catastrophic inundation in populated areas, will be widespread. Coastlines altered by the hurricane may take years or longer to recover.”

Restoration preparation

Duke Energy Florida, which serves much of West, Central and East Florida, announced Oct. 8 it increased its repair workforce from 10,000 to 16,000 – power line technicians, vegetation workers, damage assessors and support personnel – who are staging them at three large sites “along the outside of Hurricane Milton’s projected path, but as close to the impacted areas as possible.”

"Hurricane Milton's intensity is expected to be unlike anything the Tampa Bay area has ever experienced before," said Todd Fountain, Duke Energy Florida storm director. "Duke Energy Florida is preparing to respond accordingly – with an army of resources ready – and we strongly advise our customers to use this time to protect their homes and businesses, while helping ensure their family members, friends and neighbors are safe."

Florida Power & Light, which serves the state’s Gulf Coast south of the Tampa Bay area, has also been preparing for the worst by pre-positioning a 14,500-person work force with equipment and supplies, including mutual assistance from 37 states.

“Hurricane Milton is going to bring heavy rains, damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge and flooding,” said FPL President and CEO Armando Pimentel on Oct. 8. “Customers need to be prepared. This storm will bring extended outages. That said, I want to assure our customers we are prepared and will be working around-the-clock to restore power.”

Duke and FPL officials noted Milton brings the likelihood of two major storms hitting the Florida Gulf Coast within two weeks. Much of the Florida customers had service quickly restored, but in the Carolinas and Georgia, more than 160,000 customers remain without power, led by 104,143 in North Carolina, 54,943 in Georgia and 13,876 in south Carolina, according to PowerOutage.us.

After customers offline peaked at 4.7 million in Helene’s immediate aftermath, utilities with more than 5,000 customers offline include:

• Duke Energy: 83,023 in North Carolina, 3,390 in South Carolina
• Satilla Rural Electric Membership Corporation: 27,818 in Georgia
• French Broad EMC: 10,109 in North Carolina
• Jefferson Energy Cooperative: 9,960 in Georgia
• Georgia Power: 7,623 in Georgia
• Colquit EMC: 6,009 in Georgia
• Blue Ridge Energy: 5,342 in North Carolina
• Aiken Electric Cooperative: 5,285 in South Carolina

Energy market impacts

Energy traders have been anticipating the lost demand. Platts-assessed Florida day-ahead on-peak bilaterals fell $6.50 to about $40/MWh delivery, compared with $43.75/MWh for delivery Oct. 1, the same day of the previous week. On Oct. 8, Platts assessed Florida on-peak at $39.25/MWh for Oct. 9 delivery, compared with $45.25/MWh for Oct. 2 delivery.

Along the US Gulf Coast, spot gas prices were down about 10-15 cents Oct. 8 amid a 400 MMcf/d drop in gas-fired power demand across the Southeast. At the US benchmark Henry Hub, prices fell about 13 cents to $2.40/MMBtu; prices at Florida Gas Zone 3 fell about as much to $2.44. Both Transco Zone 3 and Transco Zone 4 saw sharper declines of about 16-17 cents on the day to $2.34, according to Commodity Insights preliminary settlement data.

Lower prices along the Gulf Coast come ahead of cooler weather forecast through the upcoming weekend. Over the next three days, Hurricane Milton will drop the Southeast population-weighted temperature by about 2 degrees. By the coming weekend, gas-fired power demand will bottom-out around 9 Bcf/d – down from about 10.7 Bcf/d on Oct. 8, data from Commodity Insights showed.

On Oct. 8, natural gas production from the US Gulf of Mexico was little changed on the day at around 1.86 Bcf/d. In October, offshore production has rebounded to an average 1.85 Bcf/d following declines last month caused by disruptions from Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Francine. Despite a move by Chevron Oct. 7 to evacuate its Blind Faith platform, located about 160 miles southeast of New Orleans, Louisiana, the US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement has yet to issue any update on Gulf of Mexico oil and gas activity, suggesting limited impact thus far.