Nearly 2 million customers remain without power in US Southeast following Helene

Dominion had 386,000 customer outages at the peak early Sept. 27 and by 2 pm Sept. 30 had restored power to more than 340,000 customers, spokesperson Paul Fischer told Commodity Insights. The company estimates 95% of customers in 18 counties will have power restored by mid-to late week, he added.

“Although we experienced widespread, catastrophic damage on our system, we have made significant progress,” Fischer said. “Helene devastated South Carolina with heavy rain and severe winds that downed trees, poles and power lines across hundreds of miles. Destructive winds and downed trees destroyed nearly 90 transmission lines across our system. More than half of these lines have been restored.”

The historic storm surge and flooding was the most significant issues in this storm, Tampa Electric spokesperson Cherie Jacobs said. With 100,000 outages at peak, the utility has essentially completed restoration, with the exception of about 300 homes with flooding damage or other electrical issues.

Wholesale power prices in major Southeast hubs trended bearish in the wake of Helene. Into Southern on-peak day-ahead was assessed down $2 at $35/MWh for Oct. 1 delivery, according to data from Platts, which is part of Commodity Insights. Into GTC on-peak day-ahead was also assessed $2 lower to $37/MWh, with Florida on-peak also following the downward movement to $43.75/MWh.

Power plant impacts

Southern Company’s 1.8-GW Edwin I Hatch Nuclear Plant, located in southeast Georgia, was in the path of the storm. Currently, Hatch-1 is offline and Hatch-2 is operating at 80% power, up from 37% Sept. 28, according to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

The Hatch units are stable and did not sustain any significant physical damage from Helene, Kraft had said Sept. 27, adding the plant operations were adjusted to maintain grid stability as the power grid experienced significant damage from the storm.

In South Carolina, both units at Duke Energy’s 3.469-GW Catawba Nuclear Station near Charlotte, North Carolina, are operating at 34% power, according to the NRC.

Heavy rains from Helene caused electrical equipment damage at the Catawba plant, Sharpe said. Catawba-2 returned to service Sept. 29 after repairing electrical equipment damaged during the storm. Catawba-1 will enter a planned refueling outage in early October.

Unit 1 at Tennessee Valley Authority's 2.44-GW Sequoyah Nuclear Plant came offline Sept. 29 following an issue associated with non-nuclear equipment that did not impact employee or public safety, TVA spokesperson Scott Brooks said Sept. 30.

Gas production

Production from US offshore gas fields rebounded to about 1.8 Bcf/d by Sept. 28 and remained at similar levels Sept. 30, up more than 300 MMcf/d from Sept. 27, according to Commodity Insights data. Over the month, Gulf of Mexico gas production has averaged about 1.6 Bcf/d, the data showed.

Gas-fired power demand in the US Southeast also increased. Demand in the region was about 11.5 Bcf/d on Sept. 30, up by nearly 500 MMcf/d from the day prior.

Southeast power burn averaged about 12.4 Bcf/d in the seven days to Sept. 26. But regional power demand is expected to fall through the coming weekend as weather turns cooler, dropping to about 10.1 Bcf/d on Oct. 6, according to a short-range forecast.

The hurricane had little effect on overall US LNG feedgas demand. The operator closest export facility to the Helene’s path – Kinder Morgan’s Elba Island LNG terminal in Savannah, Georgia – reported no damage from the storm. The terminal, which is by far the smallest of the seven major US LNG export facilities in operation, experienced power interruptions that pushed flows to the facility down to about 200 MMcf/d on Sept. 27 before rebounding back above 300 MMcf/d over the weekend.

In the US Southeast cash market, spot gas at Florida Gas Zone 3 settled up 19 cents in Sept. 30 trading to $3.39/MMBtu, with other locations such as Transco Zone 4 also seeing double-digit increases, according to preliminary data from Platts, part of Commodity Insights. Zone 4 settled up 23 cents to $2.98/MMBtu.

The cost

Private weather forecaster AccuWeather Sept. 30 called Helene one of the costliest storms in US history because of the devastating storm surge, damaging winds and historic flooding, and estimated the total damage and economic loss from Hurricane between $145 billion to $160 billion with the storm’s most significant impacts still occurring.

"Catastrophic impacts extended into the southern Appalachians where flash flooding continues, as does the risk of dam failures in some areas," AccuWeather said in the statement. “Bridges, roadways and other expensive and critical infrastructure have been heavily damaged or destroyed."

The US National Hurricane Center had warned of a possibility of long-duration power outages in portions of the Southeast ahead of Helene's landfall.

“Hurricane Helene caused catastrophic damage across 10 states, and electric companies continue to work around the clock to restore power safely and as quickly as possible to customers and communities impacted by this historic storm,” the Edison Electric Institute said Sept. 29. “In some communities, storm damage was so catastrophic that energy infrastructure needs to be completely rebuilt before power can be restored.”

In these communities, there will be customers who are unable to receive power because of the damage to their homes or businesses, the EEI added. In areas where access and flooding are not a challenge, crews continue to make significant restoration progress.

What’s next

The Atlantic hurricane season is becoming quite active after a slow start. There are currently three named storms and two disturbances. The NHC issued advisories on Tropical Depression Joyce, located in the central Atlantic Ocean, on newly formed Tropical Storm Kirk, located in the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean, and issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaac, according to a 2 pm weather outlook.

In the Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, “a trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea continues to produce some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions could become conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form in a few days while the system is over the southern Gulf of Mexico or northwestern Caribbean Sea,” the NHC said. There is a 40% chance of formation in the next seven days.

In the Eastern tropical Atlantic, showers and thunderstorms continue to increase in association with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands, according to the NHC.

“Upper-level winds appear conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is very likely to form in a few days while it moves slowly westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic,” the NHC said, adding there is a 90% chance of formation in the next seven days.