Summer-like heat into autumn will boost US energy demand: AccuWeather forecaster

Temperatures 1-3 degrees Fahrenheit above normal across most of the US into autumn will warrant greater-than-normal power demand for cooling, a top forecaster at AccuWeather has told S&P Global Commodity Insights.

"I think we're going to use more cooling than we normally use in the fall overall for the nation," said Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather's US lead long-range forecaster, in a July 31 interview. "And most of it is going to happen during September, especially from the Southwest, Eastern Rockies, [Great] Plains and even extending out a little bit at times, I think, through the Midwest, Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, [where] I think we're going to start seeing some warmer temperatures even there as well. And so I think on the cooling side, we're going to need more energy than we normally do in the month of September."

Pastelok's comments follow a July 31statement by AccuWeather that named Florida, parts of coastal Texas, Louisiana, Georgia, South Carolina and coastal areas along California, Oregon and Washington as regions not expected to see above-historical average temperatures in the autumn. The Pacific Northwest will be the only region to see an early arrival of fall-like weather, including some early-season storms, AccuWeather said.

The expectation for above-normal heat across most of the country in the fall could mean that slightly higher electricity bills for US residential customers will persist past this summer. The Energy Information Administration forecast in June that US customers would draw monthly electricity bills averaging $173 from June through August, which would be up from a monthly average of $168 in summer 2023.

Severe weather, tornadoes on tap

The extended summer-like conditions into the fall also bring with it an increased risk for severe weather as "waves of cold air begin to dive southward, clashing with the warm and humid air across much of the central and eastern United States," AccuWeather said in its forecast.

AccuWeather, in its statement, said it anticipated the potential for a busy weather pattern in the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic in September and October that will spark additional rounds of severe thunderstorms, including some tornados. The company said there have been more than 1,400 tornados reported this year, already above the historical average typically reported in a year, and Pastelok, in the statement, said he anticipated "even more tornadoes from hurricanes and tropical storms making landfall this fall."

"We definitely have seen an increase in the amount of tropical development," Pastelok told Commodity Insights. "But [with] warm bodies of the ocean like the Gulf and off the Southeast coast, anytime you get that kind of influx into these storms, it really increases the tornadic possibilities. And we've seen Ohio and Pennsylvania this year well above their average for tornadoes. And that's pretty far north."

AccuWeather forecasts that the risk of severe thunderstorms will shift southward in November, with activity focusing on the southern Plains, Gulf Coast states and parts of the Ohio Valley.

Wildfire season

AccuWeather's experts predict wildfire activity in the US will increase in September, with the extended summer-like heat playing a role.

Parts of the Great Lakes and Northeast will see an elevated risk of wildfires in the first half of fall because of dry conditions, AccuWeather said. Wildfires will be a bigger concern out West, particularly in California, where the dry season is expected to last longer than in 2023, according to AccuWeather.

However, the expectation for early fall-like weather in the Pacific Northwest should bring some relief from wildfire season in that part of the country.

"For the Northwest and northern California, we believe they start getting precipitation in that area feeding and lowering the fire risk as we get into September," Pastelok said. "We think it's going to start happening quicker for that area in the country."