Tropical Storm Gonzalo forms in Caribbean, could reach hurricane strength by Thursday

New York — Tropical Depression seven was upgraded to Tropical Storm Gonzalo early July 22 as the storm's wind speed picked up to 75 miles an hour, and expectations are for it to reach hurricane status by Thursday, according to the National Hurricane Center data.

Gonzalo is the seventh named storm to form in the Atlantic Basin and is heading into the Caribbean, but "the small size of this system makes is susceptible to significant fluctuations, both upward and downward," the latest NHC public advisory said.

But as Gonzalo moves quickly west into the Caribbean, "interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system," the latest NHC public advisory said.

The agency has issued no warnings or watches yet for Gonzalo.

Current NHC predictions have Gonzalo moving over Trinidad and Tobago and Venezuela by early Sunday morning into the mouth of the southern Gulf of Mexico.

And while the NHC said it expects strengthening to continue "over the next couple days with a levelling off" it is too soon to gage what impact if any it will have on oil and gas infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico.

Forecasting challenges

Gonzalo is a small storm and its tiny size and the environment around it pose major forecast challenges for its future intensity, according to Wunderland, a weather service provider.

"So, the range of outcomes for the intensity forecast is large, anywhere from this storm remaining weak or dissipating east of the Windward Islands, to a possible strong tropical storm or hurricane," Wunderland said.

"Interests in the Lesser Antilles, including areas as far south as Trinidad and Tobago, even the northern coast of Venezuela, should monitor the progress of this Gonzalo closely," the company added.

Some Caribbean storage operators could be affected by Gonsalvo. On St. Croix, US Virgin Islands, Limetree Bay recently commissioned a new mooring dock to allow VLCCs to unload crude into 167 tanks with storage capacity of 34 million barrels. The associated refinery has not started up yet. A company representative was not immediately available for comment

On St. Eustatius, part of the Lesser Antilles, GTI Statia has 60 commercial tanks with a total storage capacity of 14 million barrels and extensive marine infrastructure that can accommodate berthing fully-laden ULCC and VLCC vessels. A company representative was not immediately for comment on what kind of protocol was in place.

The shutdown of major Caribbean refineries limits the impact on regional refining operations.

"Looking at the current path of the storm, it does not seem to be hitting major refineries," said Lennie Rodriguez, analyst with S&P Platts Global Analytics.

He said there might be a refining impact on the Dominican Republic, but added that any impact on Venezuelan refining operations would minimal because most refineries there are offline.

"Next week the impact might be in Mexico and/or the USGC but it's early to tell," he said, adding there could be a bigger threat to upstream production in places such as Guyana.