US' SPP, MISO issue advisories on heat, high loads, low wind

Southwest Power Pool and Midcontinent Independent System Operator have declared conservative operations for all or part of their footprints due to hot weather, high loads, and wind forecast uncertainties.

SPP issued a conservative operations advisory for its entire 14-state balancing authority footprint in the eastern interconnection starting at 12 pm CT July 6, with an anticipated end at 10 pm CT July 8. SPP also issued a resource advisory for the same time frame.

Load in SPP will be in the range of the grid operator's all-time summer peak this week, but SPP anticipates enough generation to meet load.

"We are not forecasting escalating past a conservative operations advisory, but things can evolve quickly," SPP spokesperson Meghan Sever said.

SPP forecast peakload to climb to 51.54 GW July 6, which could surpass the all-time peakload record of 51.037 GW reached July 28, 2021. In comparison, peakload averaged 50.8 GW last July, according to SPP data.

Wind generation is forecast to reach 21.565 GW July 5 and then plunge as low as 9.5 GW by July 9, according to SPP data.

MISO declaration

MISO's conservative operations declaration applies to the Central and North regions and is effective from noon ET to 8 pm ET July 5. The grid operator cited the hot weather, high forecasted loads, and the need to maximize transfers into the North and Central regions.

MISO also issued a hot weather alert for the same period in the North, Central, and a portion of the South Region, noting that temperatures are expected to average 95 degrees Fahrenheit.

"Along with elevated loads, wind production is expected to be low today throughout the peak hour," MISO spokesperson Brandon Morris said. "MISO remains in close contact with its neighbors to ensure reliability through the use of energy imports and exports."

MISO forecast peakload to rise to 116.85 GW July 5. June peakload reached as high as 120.684 GW, according to MISO data. In comparison, peakload averaged 102.4GW in July 2021 and reached as high as 118.1 GW, according to MISO data. The all-time peakload record is 127.125 GW reached July 20, 2011.

MISO does not expect to exceed peak demand this week, and the grid operator is expecting sufficient capacity to meet demand, Morris said. The declarations issued provide MISO with additional visibility by asking members to update forecasts and offers, and allow MISO to suspend maintenance and defer or cancel outage plans, Morris said.

MISO North and Central had a 1.2 GW shortfall in the capacity auction for the planning year that began June 1. This spring, MISO predicted that emergency resources and non-firm imports would be needed to maintain system reliability this summer.

Power prices

Power prices climbed in reaction to market conditions.

SPP South Hub on-peak day-ahead was bid at $95/MWh and offered at $140/MWh for July 6 delivery on the Intercontinental Exchange. On-peak day-ahead locational marginal prices have averaged around $119.25/MWh so far in July, which is a 157% jump from the July 2021 average, according to SPP data.

In MISO, Indiana Hub on-peak day-ahead traded at $117.25/MWh for July 6 delivery on ICE, while on-peak real-time for July 5 traded in the low $120s/MWh. Similarly, the Indiana Hub's on-peak balance of the week was offered at $115/MWh on ICE, and on-peak next week was offered at $130/MWh.

In comparison, Indiana Hub on-peak day-ahead LMPs have averaged around $125/MWh so far in July, a 172% jump from the July 2021 average, according to MISO data.