Infographic: Europe’s gas jitters set to persist into Q3

Despite high stocks and subdued demand, the European gas market remains jittery and mindful of the potential for unexpected supply shocks through the third quarter of 2024.

Prices remain relatively high, reflecting market nerves, and have risen by 50% since a recent low in February.

S&P Global Commodity Insights analysts expect storage sites to be 100% full by the end of October, with LNG imports set to rise from their recent lows, albeit forecast to be 4% lower year-on-year in Q3.

In power, strong solar, hydro and nuclear fundamentals ensure Europe's power markets are well-supplied this summer, with few signs of structural demand increases. Q3 2024 supply from solar, hydro, nuclear and wind is expected to be 14 GW higher versus Q3 2023, with coal- and gas-fired output set to fall below 20% of the mix, according to analysts at Commodity Insights.

Meanwhile, the European compliance carbon market approached Q3 in bearish mode with EU allowances down 10% in value between June 1-27.

Fundamentals remain weak with EU renewables regularly breaking records, squeezing the thermal gap and reducing any emissions impact from potential gas to coal switching.

Read the full feature: Europe’s gas jitters set to persist into Q3 despite healthy storage position (subscriber content)

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