Hydrogen fuel cells to compete with diesel truck engines by 2030: Cummins

Hydrogen fuel cell trucks could compete with diesel engine vehicles on a total cost of ownership basis before 2030, the head of new power engineering at engine and generator producer Cummins told S&P Global Platts.

Falling costs of renewable hydrogen and fuel cell production were bringing down the total cost of ownership (TCO) of fuel cell electric trucks, Cummins Vice President for New Power Engineering Jonathan Wood said in an interview June 16.

"We think towards the end of this decade, we will be getting closer to TCO parity with a diesel engine," Wood said.

"It does depend on region, it does depend on application, it does depend on electricity pricing ... but that is the time frame we think we will be getting close on TCO on some heavy-duty applications where we can get to low-cost hydrogen production," he said.

Wood said the future of heavy-duty land transport would be hydrogen fuel cell or battery electric, as economies sought to meet zero-emission targets. The timing of the transition was uncertain, he said, but noted that diesel would not form a part of the future energy mix in this segment.

Scaling up

US-based Cummins makes 1.3 million internal combustion engines a year, with current volumes giving a large price advantage to diesel trucks.

"If you run a commercial vehicle, the two biggest costs in the total cost of ownership are the price of fuel and the driver," Wood said.

While fuel cell production was very small, "costs are coming down, the manufacturing supply chain is getting in place, we are starting to see lower-cost materials," he said.

As well as falling total costs of ownership, fuel availability and grid developments to support the rollout of hydrogen infrastructure would define the success of fuel cells, but Wood was bullish.

"In heavy duty, we think hydrogen will dominate because you have got ease of refueling, and very fast refueling," Wood said. "You have got range flexibility, duty cycle flexibility, and high levels of efficiency from the fuel cell itself."

However, battery electric solutions for heavy transport might dominate in urban centers where a centralized charging system and fixed routes made battery infrastructure easier to manage, he said.

Policies needed

Getting the right policies in place was key to developing fuel availability and infrastructure, Wood said, and required investment from governments and municipalities.

"Policies and incentives are really important at this early stage of the market. If the infrastructure and the build-out of the fueling stations or the charging stations do not happen, this is going to stall growth."

Wood noted well-developed hydrogen policies and incentives in European countries and China, highlighting Germany as a good example.

Germany has pledged Eur9 billion ($10.8 billion) to develop renewable hydrogen, with Eur2 billion allocated for international partnerships. It is targeting 5 GW of electrolysis capacity by 2030, with 2 GW reserved for the transport sector, and a further 5 GW installed by 2040 at the latest.

On the forthcoming UK hydrogen strategy, expected in July, Wood said he hoped for something similar in scope and ambition to strategies proposed in the EU.

Regulatory pressure

Wood noted that increasing demand from fleet owners for low- and zero-emission vehicles was pushing truck manufacturers to develop solutions with drivetrain producers such as Cummins.

The regulatory context here was provisional agreement reached June 16 between the European Parliament and EU Council to move to road charges that reflect the carbon emissions of the vehicle.

The charging rates based on CO2 emissions could come into force as soon as additional rules on CO2 classes for vehicles are set, possibly in 2023, the European Parliament said.

Zero- and low-emissions vehicles would receive a substantial discount, of at least 50%, campaign group Transport and Environment said.

"Annual tolling costs can reach up to Eur25,000 per truck, or a quarter of the total cost of owning and running the vehicle," the NGO said.

New power

Cummins' new power business segment covers fuel cell and electrolyzer production, as well as battery systems. Sales from the new power business were $35 million in the first quarter of 2021, of a total $6.1 billion revenue for the company.

The company anticipates around 40% of the new power division's sales would relate to hydrogen fuel cells and electrolyzers, with 60% related to battery electric vehicles.

Cummins has made several strategic acquisitions in recent years to increase its presence in the renewable energy space, including Johnson Matthey's automotive battery business and electrolyzer producer Hydrogenics. Cummins also has a joint venture with Netherlands-based hydrogen tank storage company Nproxx.