Wind, solar output up in Q1, even as overall power sales dip in FERC reports

Wind and solar wholesale power sales continued to show significant year-on-year increases in the first quarter, even as power sales edged down year on year, according to quarterly sales data supplied to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and compiled by S&P Global Platts.

The 614 companies that reported sales to FERC in the first quarter indicated they had sold 1,299.9 TWh, down 2% from 1,326.9 TWh in the first quarter of 2020.

The year-on-year decrease may seem surprising, given that the US economy began reducing its COVID-19 caseload and death count in the first quarter of 2021, while the first quarter of 2020 was when the novel coronavirus pandemic began taking hold – even causing event shutdowns and lockdowns in various locations in March.

The pandemic caseload trend improved at the end of the most recent quarter, with a seven-day moving average of 67,711 cases as of March 31, compared with 192,503 as of Dec. 31, but both of these numbers are three and 8.5 times larger, respectively, than the seven-day average at the end of Q1 2020, which was 22,103, according to worldometers.info, which collects information from state, local and federal public health authorities.

One factor that would have been seen supporting a year-on-year increase was the big winter storm that struck the central US this February, where those regions (the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, Midcontinent Independent System Operator and Southwest Power Pool), had heavier loads and worse weather in Q1 2021, compared with Q1 2020.

Year-on-year changes in average daily peakloads and population-weighted average heating-degree days for these grid operators for the first quarter were as follows:

• ERCOT: peakloads up 2.3%, HDDs up 28.8%
• MISO: peakloads up 2.3%, HDDs up 8.7%
• SPP: peakloads up 3.2%, HDDs up 14%

The peakload data is from the various ISOs, while the HDD data is from CustomWeather.

Values per megawatt-hour

The average value per megawatt-hour would also tend to support expectations for increased power sales, year on year. For example, SPP's average value in the most recent quarter, around $144/MWh, eight times the $18/MWh value in Q1 2020.

MISO's values were also stronger in the most recent quarter, around $36/MWh compared with around $22/MWh in Q1 2020.

Not enough ERCOT data is submitted to FERC to make $/MWh calculations. ERCOT and many of its market participants are not required to report sales to FERC, and the numbers reported to FERC represent an estimated 50%-60% of the ERCOT wholesale power market.

Across all non-ERCOT jurisdictions reporting to FERC, the value was almost $47/MWh in the most recent quarter, up about $20 from less than $27/MWh for Q1 2020.

However, the power sales data has further limitations, in addition to the missing ERCOT data. For example, sales are financial transactions and are not necessarily representative of physical deliveries.

MISO's second-largest total among grid operators, at 216.2 TWh, showed a 3.3% year-on-year increase from the 209.4 TWh in power sales in Q1 2020, but ERCOT's data showed a 0.3% decrease, and SPP's data showed a 3.4% decrease.

The PJM Interconnection maintained its commanding lead among regional wholesale power markets, with almost 417 TWh sold in Q1 2021, but this was down 4% from Q1 2020's 434.2 TWh

Among firms trading power, Exelon maintained its commanding lead with 113.8 TWh sold in the most recent quarter, but this was down 6.5% from the 121.7 TWh it sold in Q1 2020.

Vistra Energy came in second in the most recent quarter at 75.4 TWh, which was up 3.5% from the 72.8 TWh it sold in Q1 2020.

Shell Energy North America came in third, at 74.5 TWh in Q1 2021, up 1% from the 73.8 TWh it sold in Q1 2020.

As for wholesale renewable sales in the first quarter, companies reported about 77.7 TWh of wind sold, up 5.1 TWh, or 7% from Q1 2020, and solar sales totaled 14.6 TWh sold on in Q1 2021, up 3.8 TWh, or 34.5% from Q1 2020.

The most recent quarter's renewable sales represented more than double the 36.5 TWh of wind sold in Q1 2015 and about 4.5 times the 3.3 TWh of solar sold in Q1 2015.

Delivery points

The top three delivery points had mixed year-on-year results, as follows:

• ERCOT North: 92.6 TWh in Q1 2021, down 0.4% from almost 93 TWh in Q1 2020
• PJM AEP Zone: 60 TWh in Q1 2021, up 6.6% from 56.3 TWh in Q1 2020
• PJM ComEd Zone: 46.4 TWh, down 3.3% from 48 TWh in Q1 2020

The delivery point with the largest value per megawatt-hour was reported to be at the SPP-MISO interface involving Mag Energy Solutions, where 48,971 MWh was traded for $53.7 million, for a value of almost $1,096/MWh.

The largest amount spent was reported to be almost $1.9 billion involving American Electric Power Regulated Utilities for delivery of less than 7.1 TWh to AEP West's Central and Southwest delivery point.