Texas grid stakeholders mull plans for massive power demand in Permian Basin

Expectations that electricity demand in West Texas' Permian Basin could grow seven-fold from 2022 levels by 2038 prompted some stakeholders on July 11 to call for accelerating transmission development.

During a meeting of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas Regional Planning Group meeting, ERCOT lead planning engineer Ying Li presented the Permian Basin Reliability Plan Study, which modeled loads likely to be needing power by 2029, 2030 and 2038.

In a March 2023 presentation, S&P Global Commodity Insights had estimated Permian Basin ERCOT load at 3.4 GW in 2022, projected to grow to 11.9 GW by 2032.

Li noted that a 2021 study had projected load to grow to 10.5 GW by 2030, but ERCOT's own Regional Transmission Plan study in 2023 indicated load would likely hit almost 16.6 GW by 2029.

The current draft of the Permian Basin Reliability Plan, mandated by law and regulation to be complete by July, concludes that load would approach 23.7 GW by 2030 and 26.4 GW by 2038.

Relevant transmission service providers would need 789 miles of new rights of way to meet needs foreseen by 2030 and 1,676 miles of new rights of way by 2038, Li said.

ERCOT's Permian Basin Reliability Plan indicates that of the 23.7 GW of load expected by 2030 would include almost 12 GW of oil and gas load and almost 11.7 GW of load unrelated to the oil and gas industry. By 2038, the 26.4 GW of load to include 14.7 GW of oil and gas demand and 11.7 GW of unrelated load.

'Front-loaded' demand growth

Warren Lasher, a consultant representing the Texas Oil and Gas Association who previously worked as ERCOT's senior director for system planning, said Commodity Insights' estimates for smaller load increases reflected "an assumption of the fact that we wouldn't be able to get transmission out there in time to serve existing demand that was already out there."

Therefore, those loads, especially oil and gas, that would nevertheless connect to the grid would instead be installing cogeneration facilities.

"You're taking the fact that the S&P study just basically assumed, 'Well, we got this [load coming] there, but we can't possibly get transmission out there,'" Lasher said. "And you're saying, 'Well, we're not going to get transmission out there, because the demand is not out there yet.' So, I would question the need for a delay in the import circuits. Given the fact that the non-oil and gas demand is front-loaded, and I think the oil and gas demand is already out there."

An ERCOT staffer who was not clearly identified for teleconference listeners acknowledged Lasher's concern and said the subject would be explored more fully in a June 28 stakeholder workshop.

Lines to serve renewables, also

The staffer pointed out that the transmission is not just needed to connect more power to feed Permian Basin load, but also to be able to supply power from the wind- and solar-power-rich Permian Basin eastward to Texas' more populous areas.

"I appreciate that," Lasher said. "I just want the planners to know to see that the distinction between the 2030 need and the 2038 need may not be something that the oil-and-gas producers kind of have confidence in right now."

Meghan Griffiths, representing the Permian Basin Petroleum Association, said, "PBPA supports looking at these groups together."

The staffer also said ERCOT is working with transmission service providers to estimate the cost of the upgrades needed to meet Permian Basin power needs in 2030 and 2038 in time for the June 28 stakeholder workshop.