Germany's green hydrogen potential limited to 16 TWh by 2030: Prognos

London — Electricity system limitations could restrict production of green hydrogen to 16 TWh in Germany by 2030, a Prognos study for Germany's energy ministry said June 5.

The estimate is based on annual growth in renewable capacity of 4.4 GW for onshore wind, 0.9 GW for offshore wind and 7.2 GW for solar PV.

For 2025, the power system's green hydrogen potential is limited to 4-6 TWh, it said.

It predicts domestic demand for such fuels to almost double by 2030 from around 25 TWh in 2025.

Electricity-based energy forms such as green hydrogen, power-to-fuel or power-to-gas are essential to meet German climate targets for 2030 and are set to soar towards the 2050 decarbonization target, Prognos said, adding that current and future cost expectations would be above those for traditional fossil fuels.

It pegged current production of hydrogen in Germany at 57 TWh, with refineries and fertilizer production accounting for three quarters of current demand for hydrogen.

The study, published days before the government's national hydrogen strategy, looks at pathways for sustainable energy and compares costs across technologies, sectors and regions.

"As a first step, public transport applications [such as hydrogen trains or buses] seem promising," Prognos project leader Sven Kreidelmeyer said.

The study foresees 1.2 TWh of demand by 2030 from 200 hydrogen trains and over 5,000 hydrogen buses.

Replacing refinery demand for hydrogen, currently produced by steam methane reforming of natural gas, with electrolysis would be another promising approach, Kreidelmeyer said.

Prognos estimates refinery demand for such hydrogen at 4-5 TWh with electrolysis the main conversion technology in future.

Steel and chemicals offer new potential for power-conversion for decarbonization, but with the massive energy demand of steel seen outweighing the availability of green electricity before the 2030s, it said.

Higher demand for green electricity for electrolysis purposes would either result in rising power imports or importing green hydrogen, the study looking at such an option for the MENA region.

Germany's coalition on June 3 agreed a first framework for a national hydrogen strategy focusing with a target of 5 GW electrolysis target by 2030.

A further 5 GW should be rolled out as early as 2035 and 2040 at the latest, the government said.

Details of the strategy are expected mid-June, energy and economy minister Peter Altmaier said June 4.