US light-duty EVs surpass rail electricity consumption for the first time

Light-duty electric vehicles consumed more electricity than rail systems across the US for the first time in 2023, the US Energy Information Administration said May 20.

US EV sales have risen in recent years with light-duty EVs accounting for 16% of all LDVs in 2023, according to the EIA.

"Annual electricity consumption by railways has been the largest electricity end-use category in the transportation sector published in the Electric Power Monthly since 2003, stable for the past two decades and averaging about 7,000 GWh," the EIA said. "The US has had only limited expansion of municipal railway systems or electrified passenger rail during that period."

The number of battery electric vehicle model options have increased as their prices have declined, according to the EIA. In 2023, BEVs accounted for 72% of overall electricity consumption by EVs.

"Estimated annual electricity consumption by EVs grew to 7,596 GWh in 2023, almost five times the consumption in 2018," the EIA said, adding the shares of electricity consumed by BEVs and by plug-in hybrid electric vehicles were about the same in 2018.

US to overtake Europe

The US plug-in EV market wrapped up 2023 with a total of 1.4 million units sold in 2023, a 54% year-over-year increase, Suzanna Massingue, a low-carbon transportation analyst with S&P Global, said May 20.

"Growth is expected to continue in 2024, with annual sales forecast to reach 1.6 million sales this year," Massingue said. "Future growth will be driven by incentives brought by the Inflation Reduction Act, such as tax credits for buying eligible electric vehicles, as well as tailpipe emission standards recently finalized by the Environmental Protection Agency."

By the end of the decade, EV sales are forecast to reach 5.5 million, accounting for one in three light duty vehicles sold, she added. S&P Commodity Insights expects that the US EV market will grow to become the second largest globally, forecast to overtake Europe in 10 years, driven by the size of the automotive market, population and levels of wealth.

West is the best

The Pacific Census Division consumed the most electricity by EVs in any region of the US in 2023 with 40% of the total, according to the EIA. The South Atlantic Census Division had the second-most consumption at 15.5%, while Middle Atlantic Census Division was third with 8.8%.

California accounts for about 85% of electricity consumption by LDVs in the contiguous part of the Pacific Census Division, according to the EIA. California has the highest concentration of EVs of any state in the US, and therefore California EVs consume more electricity than in any other state. In 2023, 33.9% of US EV electricity consumption was in California, followed by Florida at 6.0%.

The US presents differing rates of EV adoption across the country, with California leading in terms of plug-in EV sales and stock, Massingue said.

"This can be greatly attributed to the progressive policy and incentives available, extensive investment in charging infrastructure and the Low Carbon Fuel Standard which aims to reduce transport related greenhouse gas emissions," Massingue said. "Additionally, the California Air Resources Board has also voted to ban the sale of new internal combustion engine passenger vehicles in the state by 2035, with the interim goal of 35% of new passenger vehicles to be zero-emission vehicles by 2026 and 68 by 2030."

California reached a zero-emission vehicle milestone in second quarter 2023 with 125,939 ZEVs sold, accounting for 25.4% of all new car sales in the state. California ZEV sales reached a Q1 record with 102,507 sold in Q1 2024, rebounding from a 14% quarter-on-quarter drop in Q4 2023.

The EIA recently started publishing experimental estimates for light-duty vehicle electricity consumption, which are not collected on its traditional surveys but are derived using a model. The EIA compared the estimates with consumption data from electric utilities that report transportation sector end use, which is almost only municipal and regional rail systems.

The EIA's new estimates of LDV electricity consumption are based on models and subject to model error.

"We are releasing these new estimates to solicit comments by email on the potential uses of the data, the methodology, and possible enhancements," the EIA said.