Global solar additions to stall in 2026 on policy, market uncertainty: SolarPower Europe

New global solar photovoltaic installations are projected to slow in 2025 and stagnate in 2026 due to mixed policy signals and geopolitical instability within some key markets, SolarPower Europe said May 6, although growth is set to pick up once more from 2027.

Under SolarPower Europe's most likely development trajectory, or medium scenario, global solar PV additions are set to reach 655 GW in 2025, representing a 10% increase from 2024 and down from a 33% year-over-year increase in 2024, the association outlined in its annual Global Market Outlook.

New solar addition increases are then expected to stagnate at 1%, reaching only 665 GW in 2026, the report added.

Through 2026-2029, growth in the global solar market is expected to regain a somewhat quicker pace, with year-over-year increases of 10%-14%. However, the association did revise its installation forecast for 2026-2028 from 2.34 TW in 2024's outlook to 2.27 TW.

According to the report, the main driver of the declining growth trajectory in 2026 would be the new market-based renewable power pricing mechanism in China, which is set to begin in June 2025 and is likely to slow large-scale installations, as developers may delay investment decisions to better understand new market dynamics.

The association also noted that international trade tensions amid increasing import tariffs could also exacerbate the slowdown in solar installations.

Nonetheless, continued component cost reductions and healthy product supply are prone to support market growth. This led SolarPower Europe to maintain a trajectory that is broadly in line with 2024's report, forecasting that total global installations will double from 2.9 TW in 2025 to a little over 6 TW in 2029.

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed TOPCon solar modules at 9 cents/W for volumes of 5-50 MW FOB China on May 2, down almost 20% compared with late summer 2024.

Indian solar additions to overtake US

Over 2025-2029, India is expected to install 237 GW of new capacity under the report's medium scenario.

This growth would see the market overtake the US -- expected to install 218 GW -- and take second place in the association's top 10 markets for five-year installation potential rankings, beaten only by China, which is expected to see a little under 2 TW of new PV additions.

Total installed solar PV capacity across India is forecast to rise above 163 GW-dc later this year before surpassing 309 GW-dc in 2029, according to Commodity Insights analysts.