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Electric Power, Nuclear
May 01, 2025
By Kip Keen
HIGHLIGHTS
Uranium spot prices down, contracted price up
'We take nothing for granted'
US tariffs and the threat of more trade protectionism are holding back long-term sales to big uranium buyers, Timothy Gitzel, president and CEO at uranium heavyweight Cameco Corp., said on a May 1 earnings call.
Cameco reiterated on the call that big buyers such as utilities still have large uncovered uranium needs. But utilities have targeted downstream needs rather than securing uranium, a nuclear fuel, under multiyear contracts amid fast shifting supply chains in the first few months of US President Donald Trump's administration, Gitzel said.
Trump has exempted uranium from tariffs on Canadian imports and other tariff policies, but he launched a process that could clear the way for global uranium tariffs later this year.
"With the continued uncertainty driven by global trade policies and unclear market access, fuel buyers have remained focused on adapting procurement plans under the threat of tariffs and securing downstream conversion and enrichment services before buying the natural uranium," Gitzel said, adding that he expects that to change. "Looking ahead, we believe a move upstream to focus on security of uranium supply is inevitable and unavoidable."
The Platts-assessed spot price of uranium delivered to Canada was $66.90 per pound on April 30, down 37.5% from a 2024 peak of $107/lb on Feb. 2. While spot prices have traded down over the past year, contract prices have recently hovered around $80/lb, near highs last seen over a decade ago, according to pricing data on Cameco's website.
Gitzel estimated that 3.2 billion pounds, or 70%, of utility needs through 2045 was not yet covered under contracts. Meanwhile, Gitzel said the potential source of production to meet needs for about one-third of the demand through 2045, or 1.3 billion pounds of uranium, was not clear.
Still, utility buying has been slow.
"We're not seeing the panic yet," Gitzel said.
Cameco executives reiterated that they would not restart more idled capacity until there is more contracting demand.
As it stands, Cameco's Canadian uranium exports of key products to the US do not face a tariff, as the materials get an exception for being compliant under the United States-Mexico-Canada agreement.
But the White House on April 15 launched a national security probe, under Section 232 investigations of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, into US supply of many metals including uranium. That, along with tariff turmoil, has been dampening buyer appetite.
"We went through a similar Section 232 investigation covering steel, aluminum and uranium under the previous Trump administration," Gitzel said. "And at that time, uranium was spared. However, we take nothing for granted. That was a different time and a different trade environment."
Cameco reported adjusted net earnings of C$70 million for the first quarter, increasing 52% year over year from C$46 million.
Still, the company's uranium segment net earnings fell 10% year over year to C$227 million. Cameco said the decrease was partly due to the timing of sales related to production from the Inkai uranium mine in Kazakhstan. The in-situ recovery operation, which temporarily suspended production in January due to permitting issues, is a 60/40 joint venture between NAC Kazatomprom JSC and Cameco.