CERAWEEK: Sunny future for solar as major part of overall energy transition

Solar generation shows no signs of slowing down as climate change, corporate targets and economics all continue to lead to the resource as a big part of the energy transition, panelists said March 10.

"I don't see any scenarios where we don't set records in solar growth," John Berger, chairman, president and CEO of Sunnova Energy International, said during a session focused on maintaining the solar power growth curve at the CERAWeek by S&P Global energy conference in Houston. "We see a tremendous amount of demand."

Energy crisis

"I think the failure of the previous administrations was not treating solar resources with the same degree of national security as oil and gas," Berger said.

The current energy crisis is helping to shine a light on solar, panelists agreed.

"Democracies only move when poked with a crisis," Berger said about the energy crisis bringing together republicans and democrats in their support of the ITC extension.

What would normally take years, will take weeks or months now. In addition to solar, ITC is needed for stand-alone storage, said Cassidy DeLine, chief commercial officer with Cypress Creek Renewables.

Now is the time to get panels in the ground due to energy security and climate change, DeLine said.

However, Philip Haddad, president and CEO of Masdar Americas, warned not to get too fixated on the impact of current events, but to think long term, because solar will be a big part of the energy transition.

Scrappy solar

At the same conference 10 years ago, there was almost an antagonistic approach to renewables, DeLine said.

"We're scrappy in this space and we're not going away," DeLine said. "It feels like after a couple decades of feeling like you're running uphill, solar has finally plateaued."

One example, Texas has been hit hard with winter storms the last two years that threatened the electrical power grid.

"Solar, through both storms, was one of the best assets," DeLine said.

Solar limitations

However, solar still have several hurdles to address:

• Supply chain disruptions
• Transmission backlog due to the pandemic
• Intermittency concerns
• Revenue complexity
• Tax equity

"We need more modules in addition to what we get from China," DeLine said.

The US won't stop buying solar materials from overseas, but it needs at least some manufacturing domestically in order to meet demand, panelists said.

With projects taking up to eight years to get through the interconnection queue, it's a long time for investors to see a return, DeLine said, adding the exception is the Electric Reliability Council of Texas.

Transmission is needed to move energy from the source to where it is needed.

Intermittency has long been a concern in the energy transition.

"We can't have a grid that is solely dependent on intermittent resources," DeLine said.

Despite these limits, solar continues to show steady growth.

"There's plenty of funding," said Josefin Berg, research and analysis manager with S&P Global and the panel moderator. "The problem is finding the right projects."

In addition, price signals from oil, gas and coal, the question is who will drive the change, Berger said.

"I would say it's not going to be a company who's been around for 50 years, but a company who's been around a few years," Berger said. "I constantly look for the startup who is going to come in and really disrupt us."