Nordic hydro stocks continue to fall amid seasonal shifts

Nordic hydropower inventories continued their downward trajectory in the week ended Feb. 16, contracting their surplus against the five-year average. Meanwhile, spot prices showed upward movements, Nord Pool data showed Feb. 20

Hydro stocks decreased to 77 TWh, or 60.6% capacity, down from 64.4% in the previous week. This marks a significant drop of 4.7 TWh week over week.

Despite the decrease, inventories remain in surplus compared with the five-year average by 16.6 percentage points, a slight contraction from the previous week's 17.8 percentage point surplus.

Reservoir and run-of-river hydro generation contributed to 94.3% of Norway's energy mix, with reservoir generation increasing to 3.3 TWh. The run-of-river generation held steady below 500 GWh, according to Fraunhofer data.

Norwegian stocks fell by 2.5 TWh, dipping below 53 TWh or 60.2% capacity, yet they remain 16.3 percentage points above last year's levels.

In Sweden, hydro levels dropped by approximately 1.2 TWh to just under 22 TWh, the lowest since late June 2024.

Finnish reserves also reduced to 2.5 TWh or 45.7%, continuing as the only region with lower reserves compared with the same week last year.

Nordic spot power prices experienced upward trends during week 7. In Sweden (SE1), prices averaged Eur19.84/MWh, increasing by 62% on the week, Nord Pool data showed.

Similarly, prices in Stockholm (SE3) rose to Eur99.93/MWh, increasing over a half, while Finnish power prices nearly doubled to Eur86.17/MWh.

Energi Danmark reported on Feb. 19 that a weather change is imminent in the Nordic region, with sharply rising temperatures, increased precipitation, and enhanced wind output expected.

Current temperatures, which are 3-4 degrees Celsius below normal, are projected to rise to 4-5 C above average during the week and early next week. Although the Nordic power market has partially priced in these forecasts, the outlook remains bearish.