SPP no longer directing power interruptions, continues to urge conservation

New York — Southwest Power Pool downgraded its status to an Energy Emergency Alert Level 1 on Feb. 17 and is not directing any power service interruptions but continues to urge electricity conservation across its footprint.

"Generation is currently sufficient to serve system-wide demand across the region and to fully satisfy operating reserve requirements," according to SPP. "We continue to urge all homes and businesses throughout our 14-state region to conserve electricity, but are not directing any interruptions of service at this time. The public should follow their service providers' directions regarding local outages, tips for conservation and safety."

Power prices remain well above normal levels with peakload forecast about 35% higher than the five-year average through the rest of the week, according to SPP data.

SPP South Hub on-peak day-ahead traded at $2,800/MWh for Feb. 18 delivery on the Intercontinental Exchange, with the weekend package bid at $350/MWh and offered at $3,000/MWh. In contrast, the five-year February average for SPP on-peak day-ahead locational marginal prices is in the low $20s/MWh, according to SPP data.

SPP forecast peakload at about 42.267 GW Feb. 17, 41.94 GW Feb. 18, 41.494 GW Feb. 19 before dipping below 36 GW by the weekend. In comparison, the five-year February average for SPP peakload is around 32 GW, according to SPP data.

Temperatures across the SPP footprint are expected to rise after reaching as low as negative 25 degrees Fahrenheit Feb. 16 with low temperatures ranging from 3 F to 16 F forecast for Feb. 17 4 F to 22 F Feb. 18, 7 F to 20 F Feb. 19, and 20-25 F by Feb. 20, according to CustomWeather.

Record load, prices

The SPP system set a new winter peakload record of 43.661 GW Feb. 15, as South Hub on-peak day-ahead LMP reached $3,360.72/MWh and North Hub on-peak day-ahead LMP reached $3,202.59/MWh, both record highs, according to SPP data.

As demand surpassed available supply and the grid operator set a new winter peakload record and record high spot prices, SPP directed member utilities to shed power Feb. 15 and 16. If controlled outages were not initated, the grid runs the risk of cascasing, uncontrolled outages, SPP CEO and President Barbara Sugg said during a Feb. 16 updated call.

Officials warned rotating outages could happen again late Feb. 16 if severe weather pushed up demand again.

However, peakload reached around 42,664 GW Feb. 16, well below the forecast of 45.983 GW.

"We never want to lose a single MW of power on the electric grid," Mike Ross, SPP senior vice president of government affairs and public relations said during the Feb. 16 update call. "This week is the first time we've found ourselves in an EEA Level 1, 2 or 3."

From Feb. 8-15, SPP loads grew by an average of 22% year on year, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics. As the SPP system set its new winter peak load, both coal-fired and gas-fired generation grew to meet increased demand and offset losses in wind generation.

"We saw outages and we saw plants offline," Lanny Nickell, SPP executive vice president and chief operating officer, said during a Feb. 16 update call about the impact extreme temperatures have had on operators ability to generation power at coal, gas and wind facilities.

SPP will investigate fuel outages and the details of this extreme weather event, he added.

"Fuel supply is a concern for us," Nickell said about wind production and gas supply. Without it, SPP has to take action. "We rely heavily on our neighbors. When they have excess power to send to us.

Imports from neighbors peaked around 6 GW, representing about 14% of need at peak, Nickell said.

Energy Emergency Alerts

The extreme cold weather created energy deficiencies across SPP 's region.

SPP declared conservative operations Feb. 9 until further notice in anticipation of the winter storm, a first in its 80-year history, SPP spokesman Derek Wingfield said during the Feb. 16 update call.

Load-serving utilities throughout the SPP region were requested to conserve energy beginning at midnight Feb. 15 and for the following 48 hours to mitigate the risk of more widespread and longer-lasting outages.

SPP declared an EEA Level 1 early Feb. 15, signaling the system may be unable to meet required contingency reserves. That was upgraded to an EEA Level 2 later late day, requiring SPP to direct member companies to appeal to the public to conserve energy. It also served as a maximum emergency generation notification for resources and informed the market that emergency ranges of any resources may be required.

An EEA 3 was declared Feb. 15 when SPP was forced to begin relying on required reserve energy. SPP directed member utilities to implement controlled, temporary service interruptions and 641 MW were interrupted for about 50 minutes, representing about 1.5% of total load at the time, Nickell said during a Feb. 16 update call.

The situation eased to an EEA Level 2 shortly after noon Feb. 15 as load was restored to the region with enough generation to meet demand and minimum reserve requirements.

However, SPP declared an EEA Level 3 again early Feb. 16 as system-wide generating capacity dropped below current load of approximately 42 GW due to extremely low temperatures and inadequate supplies of natural gas. Member utilities were directed to implement controlled, temporary service interruptions and 2.7 GW were interrupted for about 3 hours representing about 6% of load, Nickell said during a Feb. 16 update call.

Although there was enough generating capacity available to meet system-wide demand four hour later, SPP remained in an EEA Level 3, indicating it was still operating below required minimum reserves.

The situation eased to an EEA Level 2 by 11:37 am Feb. 16 and then to EEA Level 1 shortly after noon.

SPP escalated to an EEA Level 2 around 6:30 pm Feb. 16 and directed its member companies to issue public conservation appeals.

"At the time, SPP had enough generating capacity online to meet system-wide demand, but was taking steps to mitigate the risk of outages," according to SPP.