Nuclear resurgence underway in 2025, but execution challenges persist: IEA

Nuclear power will see a significant resurgence in 2025, but challenges remain to its expansion, Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, said during a Feb. 6 Atlantic Council event.

As energy demands grow globally — from increased residential power use to increased manufacturing and AI operations — more reliable generation is needed, according to Birol.

"Today I can confirm that nuclear is making a comeback, a strong comeback," Birol said. "This year, 2025, we expect global nuclear electricity generation will be the highest in history."

About 70 GW of nuclear generation is under construction in more than 15 countries today, Birol added, referencing a recent IEA report on nuclear, "The Path to a New Era for Nuclear Energy."

"We have never seen such a big amount of the construction of nuclear power plants in the last three decades," he said.

In addition to increasing demand, energy security is also driving countries to reconsider nuclear energy since its generation is more consistent than many renewables and is carbon emissions-free, unlike natural gas.

"In the age of strong electricity demand, I see that the countries are moving forward to put nuclear in part of their power generation mix," Birol said. "More than 40 countries have plans, concrete plans and projects in place to build or expand their nuclear capacity."

Some countries that have rejected nuclear power in the past, including Italy, are now looking to embrace it, he said. China, Sweden, Japan, France, South Korea, Poland, Turkey and Switzerland are also pursuing additional nuclear units, nuclear restarts or power uprates.

"We see a strong momentum, and we will see how much of this momentum will be translated into real gigawatts in the world," Birol said.

Germany, which previously shut down its nuclear generation, may also reconsider, Birol said. "I wouldn't be surprised, after the election, there may be a second look at the nuclear policies in Germany," he said.

In the last five years, more than 80% of new nuclear capacity has been built in China, Birol said. "China, with current policies, before the end of this decade will overtake United States and will be the number one nuclear power in the world."

Part of the reason for China's recent surge in nuclear builds compared to the US and Europe has been that among those Western nations, "it is rare that a project finishes on time and budget."

"On average in the US and Europe, a nuclear project is at eight years of a delay ... and the cost is two times, two-and-a-half times [higher] than the cost originally planned," Birol said.

China and South Korea have a stronger track record of delivering nuclear projects on time and on budget, Birol said, adding that if nations want to see nuclear energy make a strong comeback, "there is a big job for the nuclear industry in advanced economies to deliver on time and on budget."

Trump administration 'unleashing' nuclear

On Feb. 5, President Donald Trump's Energy Secretary Chris Wright signed his first secretarial order, which included "unleashing" commercial nuclear power in the US.

"The long-awaited American nuclear renaissance must launch" during Trump's administration, Wright said in the order. "As global energy demand continues to grow, America must lead the commercialization of affordable and abundant nuclear energy ... The department will work diligently and creatively to enable the rapid deployment and export of next-generation nuclear technology."

The US should look to build additional large-scale reactors and small modular reactors "by pushing the innovation button and bringing the cost of SMRs down," Birol said.

"One thing we should avoid is stop-and-go policies because nuclear power is a very long-lead industry," he added. "In many countries, we get excited, we go, but after a while, there's a change in government or a change in the mood. Then you stop."

Birol said nuclear energy will require significant public-private partnerships to take off again in many countries. "Government money cannot solve all the problems," he added.

Some advanced nuclear technologies could provide an answer with more attractive financing than larger-scale projects.

SMRs gain ground

Advanced nuclear technologies, such as SMRs, are also making inroads in many countries.

Much of what is being constructed now are more traditional, large-scale reactors, but interest is growing in SMRs and the possibility that they may be more cost-effective, easier to finance and appear to be less complex, Birol said.

Technology companies also have announced contracts with SMR companies for data centers and AI operations.

"Since these technology companies ... have good credit ratings, it is easier to finance these SMRs compared to large-scale plans to fund financing," Birol said.