Utilities, weather service warn of power outages from West Coast winter storm

Northern California utilities are warning of possible power outages as a windy winter storm is forecast to hit the region and is expected to be worse than the New Year's Eve storm that knocked out power to nearly 700,000 customers.

The Sacramento Municipal Utility District and Pacific Gas and Electric have partnered with other local utilities and have requested mutual aid crews from across the US for additional help with power restoration but warned restoration efforts could be delayed due to hazardous conditions and lingering storm damage from the weekend.

"SMUD has made significant progress restoring power to more than 99% of those who were knocked out of power due to the New Year's Eve storm, which was one of the most significant storm events in the last 30 years," SMUD said in a Jan. 3 statement. "And now, like a one-two punch, the National Weather Service forecasts the incoming storm [Jan. 4] to result in multiple hours of high winds with gusts exceeding 50 mph. If the forecast holds, extended outages are near certain."

Weather outlook

The US National Weather Service has issued numerous weather advisories across the region, including a winter storm warning and a high wind watch, and warned there could be downed trees and power outages expected. The ground is already saturated, and trees are weakened from recent storms, which will increase the potential for trees to be blown down, according to the weather service.

"A front will approach the West Coast [Jan. 4]," according to the weather service, which added that excessive rainfall over parts of the California Coast could create numerous areas of flash flooding. "Heavy snow will return to the Sierra Nevada Mountains [Jan. 4]."

Coastal rain and higher-elevation snow is forecast in the Pacific Northwest late Jan. 4, with and rain and higher-election snow over California Jan. 5, according to the weather service.

Utility concerns

"The incoming adverse weather could result in trees, limbs and other debris falling into powerlines, damaging equipment, and interrupting electric service," PG&E said in a Jan. 3 statement. "Saturated soil in many locations could cause trees to fall, and localized flooding and mudslides are possible."

Peak wind risk is expected Jan. 4 across the central and southern parts of PG&E's service area, with gusts up to 45 mph at lower elevations and possibly as high as 60 mph across elevated terrain, portions of the Central Valley and along the Central Coast, according to a Jan. 3 PG&E statement.

"This effort follows the restoration of nearly 500,000 customers who lost power during the strong New Year's Eve storm last Saturday," PG&E said in the statement.

The coming storm is expected to be worse than the one seen New Year's Eve, which caused more than 120 poles to be blown down, and at least 115 trees uprooted and took down power lines, Sacramento Municipal Utility District said in a Jan. 3 statement. At its heights, more than 180,000 customers were without power in SMUD's service territory.

Preparation efforts

"The company is using its storm outage prediction models that help determine the potential timing, location and number of power outages," according to PG&E, adding it is prestaging power poles, powerlines, transformers and other electric equipment to restore power as quickly as possible. "This allows the company to have extra crews on standby to deploy to areas that are hard hit by the storm."

PG&E has about 360 four-person electric crews, 397 linemen, distribution line technicians and system inspectors, and another 800 personnel who will monitor electric incidents for public safety. There are also 250 vegetation-management personal ready, according to PG&E.

SMUD and PG&E are working with other utilities to restore power and have requested mutual aid crews from across the US for additional help with power restoration.

Despite preparation efforts, both utilities warned that power restoration efforts could be slowed in some areas due to potentially hazardous conditions such as high winds, flooding, mud slides and road closures, some of which remain from New Year's weekend storms.

Market reaction

NP15 on-peak day-ahead was bid at $175/MWh and offered at $194.50/MWh for Jan. 5 delivery on the Intercontinental Exchange, while the 15-minute market strip was bid at $165/MWh and offered at $187.50/MWh for Jan. 5 delivery.

In comparison, the NP15 on-peak day-ahead locational marginal price was $226.40/MWh for Jan. 4 delivery, a jump of 35% day on day, according to California Independent System Operator data. Likewise, the SP15 on-peak day-ahead LMP rose 33% day on day to trade at $225.56/MWh for Jan. 4 delivery, according to CAISO data.

In the gas market, stormy weather helped drive down spot gas prices at key locations in California.

PG&E city-gate spot gas prices fell to $18.66/MMBtu for Jan. 5 flows, down $4.63/MMBtu from the prior session's settlement and in keeping with losses recorded across California hubs, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights preliminary settlement data. SoCalGas city-gate dropped by more than $6/MMBtu day on day to $20.18/MMBtu, nearly reversing massive gains recorded in the first trading session of 2023.