Crude Oil, Refined Products, Gasoline

December 30, 2024

Turkish delegation in Syria to explore reviving oil, gas sector for reconstruction

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HIGHLIGHTS

Syrian production down to 30,000 b/d from 600,000 b/d

Sector badly battered from 13-year civil war

A Turkish delegation is in Damascus to discuss supplying war-torn Syria with electricity and also rebuilding its battered oil and gas sector, local news reported Dec. 29.

Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said his country is carrying out studies to see how to use Syria's oil and natural gas resources for reconstruction.

"We are acting with a vision related to bringing this potential of Syria to the economy and using the resources obtained from there for the development, construction, and revival of Syria," he said in comments to Turkish media ahead of the trip.

Syria's oil and gas fields and infrastructure have been badly damaged by 13 years of civil war and neglect. Bayraktar said that Syria's daily production was 600,000 b/d in the early 2000s, but these figures have now decreased to just 30,000 b/d.

Non-state actors, including the Islamic State militant group and the Kurdish YPG, as well as Russia's private military organization Wagner Group, have for years profited from Syria's oil fields, but have operated them without expertise or care, leading to severe degradation.

Analysts who share Bayraktar's view that oil and gas can be used for reconstruction have urged sanctions-imposing nations, like the US and UK, to lift economic sanctions that make it impossible for foreign firms to do business in Syria without consequence.

Bayraktar added that Syrian oil could also be opened to the world and to refineries in Turkey via the Iraq-Turkey oil pipeline. However, that pipeline has been shut since March 2023, and there is little political will in Baghdad to reopen the pipeline.

The Iranian lifeline

Syria had for years survived on fuel from Iran, a major backer of the Assad regime. Tehran had shipped one to two Suezmax tankers per month to the Banias refinery in recent years. The export shipments to Banias averaged around 50,000 b/d in 2024, down from a high of about 80,000 b/d in 2023, the data shows. But those flows stopped suddenly when former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad fled the country on Dec. 8 as rebels swept through Damascus.

The final batch of gasoline at Syria's Banias refinery was produced on Dec. 19 leaving the country's new leadership exploring sources for importing both crude oil and products.

Syrian electricity output has been unstable for years, but a rebel coalition headed by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, that captured Damascus in mid-December is now figuring out how to govern, which will include revitalizing a nearly defunct oil and gas sector and improving electricity supply.

The Turkish Energy Ministry delegation met with the Syrian Ministry of Electricity to research how to improve the electricity situation, local Syrian media reported.

Turkey had shown some support for rebel groups, including HTS, fighting against recently deposed strongman Assad who brutally ruled Syria for nearly 24 years.

Now, Ankara is likely to play a sizable role in Syria as it looks to rebuild and find new sources of fuel, with Minister of Foreign Affairs Hakan Fidan the first foreign diplomat to meet with HTS leader Ahmad al-Shera, who had previously gone by the nomme de guerre Abu Mohammad al-Julani.

Rehabilitating fields, refineries, pipelines, and storage facilities will take time and money. With future stability in the country still uncertain, international investors – who also must adhere to sanctions – are unlikely to rush back in.

"There is much work to be done in Syria," Bayraktar said. "It is very important to get Syria back on its feet. We will do our best to determine Syria's infrastructure needs in energy, electricity, and other areas and to ensure that they benefit from these basic services again with short, medium, and long-term planning."