ANALYSIS: US gasoline stocks hit 16-week high as pandemic lockdowns blunt demand

US gasoline inventories climbed for a fifth straight week in the week ended Dec. 11 as pandemic lockdowns weighed on demand, US Energy Information Administration data showed Dec. 16.

Total gasoline stocks moved 1.02 million barrels higher to 238.88 million barrels, narrowing the surplus to the five-year average to around 4.3% from 4.6% during the week prior.

The build comes as gasoline demand continued to trend lower. While weekly implied demand climbed around 5% to 7.98 million b/d it was still more than 15% behind year-ago levels, up from around 14% behind year-ago levels during the week prior. Meanwhile, the four-week moving average of implied demand fell for a fifth straight week and was the lowest since the week ended June 19 after falling 1% to 7.92 million b/d.

Apple Mobility data shows US driving activity edged higher during the week ended Dec. 11 for the first time since the week ended Sept. 4. But driving activity in the states most hard-hit by the pandemic continued to decline.

In California, where dwindling hospital resources triggered a near-statewide lockdown on Dec. 6, driving activity was the lowest since mid-May. New York activity edged up around 1 percentage point on from the week prior, but still held near levels last seen in late May.

Reduced gasoline demand drove down US West Coast cracking margins, with Bakken crude cracking margins averaging $4.19/b for the week ended Dec. 11, S&P Platts Global Analytics data showed. On the US Atlantic Coast, Bakken cracking margins rose to $3.61/b for the week ended Dec. 11 but showed a trailing off at the end of the week ahead of a new ban on indoor dining in New York City restaurants by Governor Andrew Cuomo beginning Dec 14. The margin on Dec. 11 was 4 cents/b lower than $4.03/b on Dec. 10.

US West Coast gasoline stocks edged 110,000 barrels higher to 30.9 million barrels. The counter-seasonal build pushed inventories to the highest since the week ended Oct. 2 and left them 5.2% above the five-year average.

Total distillate stockpiles climbed 170,000 barrels to 151.26 million barrels.

Refinery net crude inputs fell 250,000 b/d to 14.18 million b/d amid a 0.8 percentage point pullback in refinery utilization to 79.1% of total capacity. Crude inputs were nearly 16% behind the five-year average but despite the week on week decline were still generally trending higher and the four-week moving average edged up to 14.22 million b/d, a 15-week high.

Crude stocks draw amid export rebound

Commercial crude stocks fell 3.14 million barrels to 500.1 million barrels last week, leaving stockpiles around 10.3% above the five-year average, in slightly from 10.7% above average during the week prior.

The draw comes as weekly crude exports surged nearly 43% to 2.63 million b/d, while imports slid 16% to 5.42 million b/d. Despite this divergence in crude flows, the US was a net petroleum liquids importer for a second straight week with total imports outpacing exports by 100,000 b/d.

US Gulf Coast crude inventories declined 2.97 million barrels to 270.1 million barrels, and USWC stocks fell 1.04 million barrels to 46.71 million barrels.