Oil prices tread water amid little cues on production guidance from OPEC+ JMMC

New York — Crude futures were little changed Nov. 17 after the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee failed to offer insight as to whether the group would extend its current output quotas into next year.

NYMEX December WTI settled 9 cents higher at $41.43/b and ICE January Brent was down 7 cents at $43.75/b.

The JMMC, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, met Nov. 17 without making any policy recommendations, delegates told S&P Global Platts, despite reviewing proposals to postpone the OPEC+ alliance's scheduled 2 million b/d easing of quotas by three or six months.

The 22-country producer bloc will announce its decision when it convenes online Nov. 30-Dec. 1, still ample time for market fundamentals to shift, delegates said, warranting a cautious approach to publicizing any outcome beforehand.

NYMEX December RBOB settled 64 points higher at $1.1532/gal and December ULSD was up 1.02 cents at $1.2391/gal.

The current deal calls for OPEC+ members to cut 7.7 million b/d of crude production from November 2018 levels, tapering down to 5.8 million b/d from January 2021 to April 2022. Traders largely expect and ministers themselves have hinted that the group will maintain their deep production cuts into 2021.

In his opening remarks to the JMMC, Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman vowed that the alliance would remain responsive to changing fundamentals, warning his OPEC+ counterparts that the oil market could punish prices if they do not remain disciplined about how much they produce.

"There is still a ways to go before we reach the other side of the pandemic," the prince said. "We as a group do not want to give the market any excuse to react negatively... This is why we must be prepared to act according to the requirements of the market."

Meanwhile, surging COVID-19 infection rates continued to pressure near-term demand outlooks, even as reports of progress on potential vaccines boosted optimism for longer-term demand recovery.

The seven-day moving average of US COVID-19 cases climbed to a fresh all-time high of 150,808 on Nov. 16, according to data from The COVID tracking project.

The front-month ICE New York Harbor RBOB crack against Brent edged up to $4.72/b in afternoon trading, climbing around 35 cents off three-month low reached Nov. 16.

The NYMEX RBOB forward has flattened in recent sessions as gasoline demand outlooks have dimmed amid the COVID-19 surge. The second-month January contract settled at a 4 point discount to the front-month, in sharply from a backwardation of around 5 cents during the same period last year.