US crude exports plummet nearly 1.2 million b/d on week, four-week-average lowest since June

Houston — • Four-week moving average of US crude exports lowest since mid-June

• Exports expected to continue to decline in 2021

US crude exports for the week ended on Oct. 30 fell by 1.195 million b/d to 2.265 million b/d, the biggest week-on-week fall since Jan. 3, when exports were reported to have fallen nearly 1.4 million b/d from the week prior, according to the US Energy Information Administration Nov. 4.

Not only were exports significantly lower on the week, but crude exports four-week moving average sunk to 2.724 million b/d, the lowest level since the period ended on Jun. 19, when the four-week moving average was at 2.713 million b/d.

Compared to the same time last year, the four-week moving average is around 700,000 b/d lower than the four-week moving average of 3.415 million b/d for the period ended on Oct. 25.

Looking ahead, S&P Global Platts Analytics expects US crude exports to remain around current levels through November, before continuing to fall in 2021 as declining US shale production results in fewer barrels being available.

Platts Analytics forecasts 2021 US production to be 1.2 million b/d lower during 2021 from 2020 levels, and 2 million b/d lower than the 2019 average. This fall in production is expected to result in weekly exports falling to around 2.1 million b/d on average through 2021.