Oil falls more than 3% as rising supply meets weakened demand

New York — Crude oil futures settled sharply lower Oct. 1 as the market eyed a rising supply picture and weakened demand outlooks.

NYMEX November WTI settled $1.50 lower at $38.72/b and ICE December Brent was down $1.37/b on the day to settle at $40.93/b.

It was the lowest front-month settle for both contracts since Sept. 15.

Iraq's federal oil exports remained nearly steady in September compared with August, the oil ministry said Oct.1, signaling OPEC's second largest producer may have yet again failed to implement compensation cuts to make up for overproduction between May and July.

Federal oil exports averaged 2.613 million b/d, up from 2.597 million b/d in August, ministry figures showed. The ministry did not publish production figures.

Iraq had pledged to cut an extra 400,000 b/d in each of August and September to make up for overproduction in May through July in a plan endorsed by Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies. The country's August and September quota is 3.804 million b/d, excluding voluntary extra cuts to compensate for overproduction.

Meanwhile, exports of Russian crude in October are expected to increase by 9% on the month to 14.4 million mt, or around 3.4 million b/d, but are 35% lower year on year compared with 5.3 million b/d in October 2019, according to data released by pipeline operator Transneft Oct. 1.

Russia, which owes the second-largest compensation cut of 333,000 b/d, has not yet submitted a plan to make up for previous overproduction in violation of quotas, according to an internal document seen by S&P Global Platts.

Of the 13 OPEC+ members that owe a collective 2.375 million b/d in compensation cuts, only six have outlined their planned schedule of cuts, which total 1.222 million b/d, the document shows.

In addition to adding more crude to global markets, continued non-compliance from OPEC+ members makes it less likely that the group will extend the current level of cuts past December, when quotas are set to taper by a further 2 million b/d.

NYMEX November RBOB settled down 2.92 cents at $1.1524/gal and November ULSD pulled back 2.72 cents to settle at $1.1250/gal.

Meanwhile, demand outlooks remained under pressure amid rising coronavirus infections in Europe and the US.

The US manufacturing PMI for September fell to 55.4%, down 0.6 percentage point from August, the Institute for Supply Management said Oct. 1. The PMI indicates that while the economy continued to grow last month, it did so at a slowing pace.

Workplace mobility fell across Europe's five biggest economies during the last week of September, according to Google data, as surging coronavirus infections across the region continue to trigger new measures to curb the spread of the virus.

Mobility at workplaces in Germany, the UK, France, Italy, and Spain averaged 21.2% below precoronavirus levels in the week ending Sept. 27, slipping from a post-lockdown high of 20.5% earlier in the week based on a rolling seven-day average, the latest Google mobility data shows.