TotalEnergies pledges 2%-3%/year output recovery led by emerging market demand, LNG

TotalEnergies on Sept. 27 laid out plans to stem recent decline and increase its production by 2-3%/year out to 2028 on the back of emerging market demand and expansion in LNG, after a 2% drop in 2022 and even faster reduction this year.

In a strategy update, the French company detailed a number of projects due on stream in the coming years, with LNG projects set to dominate in the 2025-28 period.

TotalEnergies has experienced particularly steep output decline -- outstripping a shallower decline at Shell -- largely on the back of its decision to withdraw from Russian LNG producer Novatek.

It recorded a 2% output drop in 2022 to 2.8 million b/d of oil equivalent, with the main fall being in gas; other causes included the expiry of a license in Qatar, operational issues in Nigeria, and its withdrawal from Myanmar.

It went on to report a 10% production decline for the first half of 2023, to 2.5 million boe/d, with gas output falling by 27% year on year, reflecting lost Novatek volumes.

In its latest update presentation in New York, TotalEnergies said it expected output additions up to 2025 from Brazil's Mero field and two fields in the US Gulf of Mexico -- Anchor and Ballymore -- as well as from Iraq.

From 2025-28 it expects steeper annual increases led by Qatar's North Field Expansion and North Field South projects, as well as LNG projects in Papua New Guinea and Mozambique, and the company's participation in the US Rio Grande LNG project led by Houston-based NextDecade.

Alongside its upstream plans, TotalEnergies reaffirmed its commitment to renewables and other low-carbon energy forms. "Anchored on two pillars, Oil & Gas, notably LNG, and Integrated Power, the energy at the heart of the energy transition, the company is in a very favorable position to take advantage of changing energy prices," it said in a statement.

"The company will notably develop a top-tier pipeline of LNG projects ... while leveraging its competitive advantage with leading positions in Europe regasification and in US exports. TotalEnergies will also concentrate efforts to develop its portfolio of high-return oil projects (Brazil, Gulf of Mexico, Iraq, Uganda), recently enriched with exploration successes in Suriname and Namibia."

It comes after TotalEnergies reported significantly lower financial results for the first half of 2023, but as companies eye a potential boost from recovering oil and gas prices.

The Platts Dated Brent benchmark was assessed on Sept. 26 at $94.14/b, up 74 cents/b on the day, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights data.