New USGS estimates of undiscovered domestic resources showcase recent technical advances

The US contains a mean estimate of undiscovered but technically recoverable conventional and unconventional resources underneath federally managed onshore domestic lands of 29 billion barrels of crude oil, 391.5 Tcf of natural gas and 8.4 billion barrels of natural gas liquids, the US Geological Survey said in a report released on June 18.

That is the most recent update since 1998, when undiscovered but technically recoverable oil and gas resources on federal lands were estimated to be 7.86 billion barrels of oil and 201.1 Tcf of natural gas, the agency said in a statement.

The new estimates highlight the vast improvements in US operators' ability to identify new sources of oil and gas in the more than quarter-century since then, owing to technological advances and innovation, since the 1998 estimates did not include the kinds discovered and produced hydrocarbons that in fact now comprise the majority of domestic production, USGS officials said in a press webinar.

It's only been since the shale revolution of the early 2000s that the US sparked a stampede to unconventional resources and that accounts for a lot of the increase in the domestic resource potential of the last couple of decades, they said

If produced, the US' undiscovered but technically recoverable resources would be enough oil to supply all of the nation's needs for four years at the current rate of consumption, and enough natural gas to meet the nation's needs for nearly 12 years, Alicia Lindauer, coordinator, USGS Energy Resources Program, said.

'A lot of technological change' has occurred

"There's been a lot of technological change and improvement in these accumulations," in the last couple of decades since the 1998 assessments, Lindauer said. "Those are the primary drivers for this report."

For example, the earlier estimates did not include all unconventional resources such as shale oil, tight oil and tight gas – hydrocarbons trapped in impermeable rock – and coalbed methane gas, which are now part of USGS' oil and gas assessments, USGS said.

"Of the 29 billion barrels of oil, 14 billion are located in Alaska, almost nine billion in New Mexico [and] 1 billion in Nevada," Chris Schenk, the new USGS report's lead author, said.

In addition, North Dakota contains about 512 million barrels of oil, Utah 771 million barrels, Texas 916 million barrels and Wyoming 988 million barrels, the report said.

The Permian Basin, which spans West Texas and southeast New Mexico, contains an estimated 8.9 billion barrels of oil, "so there's an uneven distribution of oil on federal lands in the US," Schenk said.

Alaska has most undiscovered gas

"For natural gas, Alaska and the Permian Basin are the highlighted areas," of the most undiscovered gas resources of any state and basin, with 111 Tcf and 58.5 Tcf, respectively, he said. "But other states like Colorado and Wyoming are big [areas] for the percentage of tight gas in the basins," with 60 Tcf and 57 Tcf, respectively.

While the Permian Basin has a high level of gas resources, there are basins that are relatively untapped which also contain high gas levels, according to USGS estimates. For example, the Uinta-Piceance Basin spanning northeastern Utah and northwest Colorado, has 55 Tcf of undiscovered gas, while the San Juan Basin in northwest New Mexico and southwest Colorado has 29 Tcf of undiscovered natural gas.

The Montana Thrust Belt in the western part of that state contains an estimated nearly 13 Tcf of undiscovered gas resource, the report also showed.

"American energy dominance is more important than ever, and this report underscores the critical role science plays in informing our energy future," said Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum in a statement. "Thanks to the USGS's rigorous and independent assessment, we're better equipped to manage America's vast public lands responsibly while supporting energy security and economic opportunity."

The onshore public lands of the US included in the report are those administered by the Departments of Agriculture, Defense, Energy and Interior and the Tennessee Valley Authority.