Global upstream spending growth expected to slow, but remains well above climate targets: IEA

Global upstream oil and gas investment growth is expected to slow in 2024, driven primarily by Middle Eastern and Asian NOCs, but remains at levels well above that needed for governments to hit key climate targets in full and on time by 2030, the International Energy Agency said June 6.

Global upstream spreading is expected to rise by 7% to reach $570 billion this year, following a 9% increase seen in 2023, the IEA said in its World Energy Investment 2024 report. Cost efficiency improvements have helped contain upstream spending which now stands at 30% below the 2015 peak, the IEA said.

At the same time, however, global spending on clean energy such as renewable power and energy efficiency is now almost twice the levels of those on fossil fuels, the IEA said.

While investment in clean energy is growing fast, the report finds that oil and gas spending this year is broadly aligned with oil demand levels implied in 2030 by today's policy settings under the IEA base-case STEPS scenario, which shows coal, oil and natural gas demand leveling off or declining before 2030.

Measured against its central Announced Pledges Scenario, however, the IEA said upstream spending is on pace to be around 35% higher than needed for national climate goals to be achieved by 2030. Global upstream spending is also more and more than double the 2030 levels needed if oil consumption falls in line with Paris Agreement targets to contain global warming, the IEA said.

As a result, the IEA reiterated its call that no further developing spending on long-lead-time oil and gas projects is needed to meet global demand in the coming decades.

"The trajectory for oil and gas consumption is curbed by rapid growth in renewables, efficiency, and other clean energy sources. There is no need in this scenario for further oil and gas exploration, as already-discovered fields are sufficient to cover projected demand," the IEA said in the report.

Total energy investment worldwide is expected to exceed $3 trillion in 2024 for the first time, the IEA estimates, with some $2 trillion set to go toward clean technologies – including renewables, electric vehicles, nuclear power, grids, storage, low-emissions fuels, efficiency improvements and heat pumps.

Peak demand

The IEA's latest energy investment report comes amid a growing divergence in long-term demand outlooks by key forecasters due to uncertainty over the ramp-up and affordability of clean energy sources.

The IEA predicts that demand for gas, oil and coal will peak by 2030, with road transport no longer a source of oil demand growth by the end of the decade. Under its central APS scenario, the IEA expects global oil demand to average around 97.5 million b/d in 2030.

According to S&P Global's reference case scenario, global oil and biofuel demand will peak at around 111 million b/d in 2031 while OPEC expects global oil demand to reach 110.2 million b/d in 2028.

The IEA report also comes a day after a similar investment report which concluded that spending on oil and gas projects worldwide must rise by almost a quarter to $738 billion from next year to meet rising hydrocarbons demand and prevent a supply crunch by 2030.

According to the "Upstream Oil and Gas Investment Outlook" carried out by the International Energy Forum and S&P Global Commodity Insights, just over $600 billion will be spent on upstream projects to boost or maintain oil and gas output in 2024, the highest figure for a decade.

Analysts at S&P Global Commodity Insights estimate that global oil demand -- including biofuels -- will remain at around 31% of the global energy mix through 2030, while renewable energy sources will grow 6%-8% per year to make up 13% of total energy demand at the end of the decade, up from 8% in 2022.

Refining sector

In the downstream sector, the IEA said it expects spending on oil refineries to decline globally by 5% in 2024, following a similar trend in 2023 where investment was just under $37 billion. Around 800,000 b/d of new refining capacity is set to come online in 2024, the IEA estimates, with future investments likely to continue to be concentrated in China, India, and the Middle East due to competitive operating costs and stronger demand growth.

With a rising disconnect between long-term climate change targets and measured global emissions, many refiners are increasingly opting to rationalize capacity or shift to low-carbon feedstock processing.

"Uncertainties around future demand growth present significant challenges for new investments in the refining sector," the report notes.

Clean energy investments by oil and gas companies themselves reached $30 billion in 2023, accounting for only 4% of the industry's overall capital spending in 2023, according to the report. Meanwhile, coal investment continues to rise, with more than 50 gigawatts of unabated coal-fired power approved in 2023, the highest since 2015.

Clean spending by oil and gas companies in 2023 was a 30% increase from 2022 levels but well below the 65% jump seen from 2021 to 2022, reflecting in part the inflationary environment and supply chain issues for some renewable projects, the IEA said.