Crude Oil

May 13, 2025

OPEC+ crude output flat in April despite quota increases

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HIGHLIGHTS

Group produces 41.01 mil b/d

Producers with quotas overproduced by 171,000 b/d

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OPEC+ production was unaffected by increases to quotas in April, staying flat at 41.01 million b/d amid ongoing oil price volatility, the Platts OPEC+ Survey from S&P Global Commodity Insights showed May 13.

OPEC pumped 26.86 million b/d of crude in April – up 20,000 b/d from March levels. Its non-OPEC allies cut output by 20,000 b/d to 14.15 million b/d.

OPEC+ is gradually phasing out 2.2 million b/d of voluntary crude production cuts from the second quarter, which had led some analysts to predict a month-on-month rise in output in April.

OPEC+ is pushing ahead with these plans despite global trade tensions leading to downward revisions to oil demand forecasts in 2025 and lower oil prices. Platts assessed Dated Brent at $65.07/b May 12, down from a 2025 high of $83.06/b on Jan. 15.

 

Overproduction by some producers has limited the impact of production cuts and continues to cause tension within the group.

 

OPEC+ producers with quotas pumped 171,000 b/d above quota in April, compared to overproduction of 319,000 b/d in March.

Serial overproducers Iraq and Kazakhstan both cut output in April – by 20,000 b/d and 30,000 b/d, respectively, the survey showed.

Both countries are part of the so-called Group of 8 implementing voluntary cuts. This also includes Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kuwait, Algeria and Oman.

While quotas increased in April, they had also pledged a collective 222,000 b/d of "compensation cuts" in the month to make up for previous overproduction, theoretically exceeding the target rise. Yet analysts point out that previous compensation plans have not come to fruition.

Producers implementing voluntary production cuts are next due to meet June 1. They have agreed to accelerate bringing barrels back to market, with quotas rising by 411,000 b/d in both May and June.

OPEC said these decisions were based on healthy oil market fundamentals and may be paused or reversed, depending on market conditions.

A full OPEC+ ministerial meeting is slated for May 28.

The Platts survey measures wellhead production and is compiled using information from oil industry officials, traders and analysts, as well as by reviewing proprietary shipping, satellite and inventory data.

 

OPEC+ crude production (million b/d)          
OPEC-9 April-25 Change March-25 Quota Over/under
Algeria 0.91 0.00 0.91 0.911 -0.001
Congo-Brazzaville 0.26 0.01 0.25 0.277 -0.017
Equatorial Guinea 0.05 -0.01 0.06 0.070 -0.020
Gabon 0.23 -0.01 0.24 0.169 0.061
Iraq* 4.05 -0.02 4.07 4.012 0.038
Kuwait 2.43 0.00 2.43 2.421 0.009
Nigeria 1.50 0.02 1.48 1.500 0.000
Saudi Arabia 8.97 0.02 8.95 9.034 -0.064
UAE 3.03 -0.02 3.05 2.938 0.092
TOTAL OPEC-9 21.43 -0.01 21.44 21.332 0.098
           
OPEC EXEMPT   Change   Quota Over/under
Iran 3.26 0.03 3.23 N/A N/A
Libya 1.20 0.00 1.20 N/A N/A
Venezuela 0.97 0.00 0.97 N/A N/A
TOTAL OPEC-12 26.86 0.02 26.84 N/A N/A
           
NON-OPEC WITH QUOTAS   Change   Quota Over/under
Azerbaijan 0.47 0.00 0.47 0.551 -0.081
Bahrain 0.19 0.00 0.19 0.196 -0.006
Brunei 0.09 0.00 0.09 0.083 0.007
Kazakhstan 1.77 -0.03 1.80 1.473 0.297
Malaysia 0.36 -0.01 0.37 0.401 -0.041
Oman 0.77 0.02 0.75 0.761 0.009
Russia 8.98 0.01 8.97 9.004 -0.024
Sudan 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.064 -0.034
South Sudan 0.07 0.01 0.06 0.124 -0.054
TOTAL NON-OPEC WITH QUOTAS 12.73 0.00 12.73 12.657 0.073
           
NON-OPEC EXEMPT   Change   Quota Over/under
Mexico 1.42 -0.02 1.44 N/A N/A
TOTAL NON-OPEC 14.15 -0.02 14.17 N/A N/A
           
OPEC+ MEMBERS WITH QUOTAS   Change   Quota Over/under
TOTAL 34.16 -0.01 34.17 33.99 0.171
           
OPEC+   Change   Quota Over/under
TOTAL 41.01 0.00 41.01 N/A N/A
           
* Includes estimated 240,000 b/d production in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region of Iraq          
Source: Platts OPEC+ survey by S&P Global Commodity Insights          

 

                                                                                                               



Rosemary Griffin, rosemary.griffin@spglobal.com, Charlie Mitchell, charlie.mitchell@spglobal.com

Editor:

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