Guyana remains undeterred in its ambitious plan to double oil production by early 2028, despite growing supply competition from US shale and OPEC+ producers and a weaker global oil price outlook, Minister of Natural Resources Vickram Bharrat said in an interview.

The producer of medium and light, sweet crudes aims to hit 1.3 million b/d of output by 2030 and is targeting Europe for its new volumes.

"Compared to other countries, we're in a good position. ... It's mainly because of the quality of our crude," Bharrat told Platts. "All oil-producing countries would like high oil prices, but the costs of production by [ExxonMobil in Guyana] are below average, around $30/b."

The South American nation joined the ranks of global crude exporters in 2020, after ExxonMobil began exploration activities in 2008, and has steadily boosted output since.

Guyana pumps around 645,000 b/d and plans to hit 900,000 b/d in the first quarter of 2026 and then 1 million b/d by the end of 2026 – which could take it past neighboring Venezuela, an OPEC member that has seen its output hamstrung by years of underinvestment, mismanagement and US sanctions.

Eventually, Guyana aims to reach 1.3 million b/d of production by 2030.

These growth plans come amid escalating US-initiated tariffs and trade tensions that are fueling concerns that oil demand growth will falter. This is driving oil prices down and raising the risk that investors will cut upstream investment.

Bharrat said that Guyana has already secured the necessary investment to achieve its output targets.

The minister also said that Guyana's economy is comfortable at current prices. "We have to strike a balance. $70-75/b would be a good price," he said.

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed Dated Brent at $64.35/b on April 29, down from $80.75/b on the day of US President Donald Trump's inauguration.

Quality crude

Guyana produces medium and light, sweet crude marketed as Liza, Unity Gold and Payara Gold grades, which have proved popular among European refiners.

Liza typically has a specific gravity of around 31.9 API with a sulfur content of 0.59%, similar to crudes from West Africa and the US. Liza crude was assessed at $63.385/b by Platts on April 29.

Much of OPEC+ Middle Eastern crudes are medium or heavy and sour, making them less of a direct competitor to Guyanese crude.

Guyana expects most of its additional crude output to supply Europe – already the key market for barrels for the government's share of production. The country supplied an average of 286,000 b/d to Europe in 2024, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea.

Guyana's emerging status is attracting the attention of global energy institutions. Guyanese officials have held talks with OPEC and the IEA, but so far have not committed to joining either, Bharrat said.

Gas ambitions

Guyana is also looking to develop gas assets to reduce emissions in the power sector and bring down generation costs.

"We are in talks with Exxon right now to determine the amount of resources that are available, because they use some of that gas to reinject into the wells to optimize production," he said.

Bharrat said Guyana has already built a gas pipeline with a capacity of 120 mil cu f/day that will supply gas for 600 MW of power generation and a small fertilizer plant.

He said that this will bring electricity prices down by more than 50%.

"We are using diesel right now, so once we transition to gas, it will be cleaner energy, more reliable and cheaper," he added.

Bharrat was speaking on the sidelines of the Summit on the Future of Energy Security organized by the IEA and the UK government, attended by over 60 governments.

A major threat to Guyana's energy sector comes from Venezuela, which claims the oil-rich Essequibo region covering two-thirds of Guyana's territory as its own.

Bharrat said that Guyana wants to resolve the issue peacefully and will respect the decision of the International Court of Justice, which ruled that it has jurisdiction to determine the territorial dispute in April 2023.

"Luckily we have the support of the US and many other countries," Bharrat said.

In a visit to Guyana on March 27, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that "it will be a very bad day for the Venezuelan regime if they were to attack Guyana or attack ExxonMobil, or anything like – it would be a very bad day, a very bad week for them."

Cleaner energy

Climate change as an energy security risk was also a major theme of the recent summit. Bharrat said that he raised the issue of the transition not moving as fast as it could at meetings during the event.

"What about the poorer countries? The political will is there to transition, but the resources are not there to transition. ... It costs a lot," he said.

For the oil-and forest-rich nation, carbon credits are set to play a big role in its energy transition plans.

Bharrat said that Guyana is open to signing more carbon credit deals after reaching a $750 million deal for 30% of the country's carbon credits with Hess. Of the revenue generated by the agreement, 15% is going to community projects and 85% to deal with adaptation and mitigation, he added.

"We are open to engagement with any company. We are the first country to be certified to sell credits to the airline industry. ... Hopefully we'll get some deals from that soon," he said.

Guyana is home to almost 20 million hectares of rainforests, with the potential to store around 20 billion mt of C02, according to government estimates.