UK traffic levels rise under lockdown as pressure mounts on exit plans

The UK's vehicle traffic levels this week were at their highest since the country's lockdown began, despite Europe's second-biggest economy continuing to hold off any easing of the measures in place to contain COVID-19.

The UK's motor vehicle usage on April 20 was at 41% of pre-lockdown levels, compared to an average of 34% since the UK was officially put into lockdown on March 23, according to the latest government data.

Transport use in the UK is down by around 60% or more for all transport types since February, the data shows.

On April 1, the UK government said it was "concerned" by an uptick in motor vehicle traffic to 36% of pre-lockdown levels on March 30 from 25% the day before and urged people to stay at home.

The UK's Chief Medical Adviser, Professor Chris Whitty, warned this week that "very socially disruptive" measures to combat the spread of the COVID-19 would likely last for the rest of the year.

Most market watchers expect global oil demand to recover to normal levels by year-end after a crushing 25 million b/d cut to demand during April. But the estimates are informed by the pace at which governments plan to ease the current lockdowns.

Germany, Europe's biggest fuel market, became the regions' first country to announce its economic recovery roadmap a week ago and a number of other European countries have announced exit plans from the lockdowns.

"The worst appears over in Europe, and countries, most notably Germany, have begun to ease economic lockdowns," S&P Global Platts Analytics said in a note." But economic normalization will not come about quickly, as the EU's guideline for opening up the economy favors a gradual and cautious approach."

Pressure for lockdown exit

Road fuels, which make up about half of the world's oil demand, have been the hardest hit in terms of volumes from coronavirus locks with gasoline making up about a third of the total oil demand loss globally.

In the UK, road transport accounts for more than half of oil demand, with gasoline and diesel meeting around 98% of transport energy needs. The UK is Europe's second-biggest fuel market after Germany, with gasoline sales last year averaging 299,820 b/d and diesel sales 546,770 b/d, according to Platts Analytics estimates.

Norwegian consultancy Rystad Energy on Thursday raised its estimate for the COVID-19 impact on global oil demand for the full year to 10.3 million b/d compared with 2019.

Pressure is mounting on the UK government to publish a lockdown exit strategy, as industry sectors warn of the crushing impact the lockdown is having on the economy. The hospitality industry has warned that the measures are putting tens of thousands of businesses and more than a million jobs at risks.

On April 8, the UK's biggest fuel retailer, supermarket chain Tesco, said its sales of road fuels were down 70% in the wake of the country's efforts to curb travel to halt the spread of coronavirus.