Global flight numbers appear to stabilize in April: radar data

The number of global daily flights appears to have stabilized in April, radar data suggests, following large falls in March as airlines slashed flying capacity amid the coronavirus epidemic.

Flightradar24 data showed tracked daily flights at 80,431 Wednesday, above the seven-day moving average for the first time since March 12. A total of 76,024 flights were recorded on Thursday, also above the moving average.

Although the daily total of purely commercial flights was still below the moving average Thursday, the fall in flight numbers appeared to have decelerated.

The total number of flights peaked at 188,587 in March and at 109,212 for commercial flights, Flightradar24 data showed.

The physical jet CIF NWE cargo differential to ICE low sulfur gasoil futures rose $2.50/mt on the day from their record low on Wednesday to minus $68.25/mt Thursday.

Signs of recovery mixed

Analytics companies who track airline flying capacity are mixed about whether the cuts to global capacity have bottomed out.

OAG noted there were small signs of recovery, notably in China, where reductions in airline schedules appeared to have bottomed out. "This process has taken about eight weeks and we are seeing what may become a similar pattern in other North East Asian countries, such as South Korea and Japan, where the schedule reductions may have gone as low as they are going to," OAG said in a note Wednesday.

Chinese passenger load factors are at around 60%, evidence that traffic is returning although it may take a while for consumer confidence to fully recover, OAG added.

However, Cirium reported Thursday that the Chinese market remained far from recovery. "Looking at Airbus and Boeing types for Wednesday April 1, 2020, 4.1% fewer aircraft were observed flying compared with a week earlier, while flight hours and cycles were down 9.6% and 5.4% respectively," Cirium said.

"Compared with Wednesday April 3, 2019, Chinese operators flew 40% fewer Airbus and Boeing types, accumulating 65% fewer flight hours and 63% fewer cycles, indicating this market remains far from recovery," they continued.

Elsewhere, "in some markets, rather than amend schedules, what we are seeing is airlines simply cancel flights. This is especially true for the US market and at those times when governments have announced bans on travel which are implemented at short notice," OAG said, after reporting that, "the aviation industry is now less than half the size reported in mid-January," in a post Monday.

Meanwhile, a jet fuel trader Thursday said: "President Trump is now waking up that travel needs to stop...The US, they will need to pull domestic flights."

Recovery long term

Longer-term, OAG don't expect the volume of flyers anticipated in 2020 until 2022 or 2023, drawing a comparison to the periods after 9/11 and the recession of 2008-09, when two or three years of growth were lost as the industry was re-set to a new normal, with growth levels that were sustainable in the new economic and geopolitical climate.

"Governments have closed entire countries. In response to COVID19, the airline industry has cut services to the bone. It is likely that when we get across to the other side of the pandemic, things won't return to the vibrant market conditions we had at the start of the year. It's also possible that a number of airlines will have gone bust and uneconomic discounts will be necessary to attract demand back," said Olivier Ponti, Vice-President, Insights at ForwardKeys.