Crude oil prices gain steadily ahead of OPEC+ meet

London — Crude oil futures were up steadily as expectations of another OPEC+ rollover grow ahead of the coalition's meeting on April 1.

At 1102 GMT, the front-month ICE Brent June crude futures were up $0.65/b at $63.39/b, while the front-month NYMEX May light sweet crude futures contract was $0.77/b higher at $59.93/b

The oil markets were a bit jittery after the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee of OPEC+ ended without any recommendation being made. But the key nine-country monitoring committee revealed that it now expects global oil demand to rise more slowly than previously expected.

The OPEC secretariat revised its 2021 global oil demand forecast to 5.6 million b/d, down 5% from its forecast of 5.9 million b/d made three weeks ago. Most of the rebound is expected to occur in the second half of the year.

Analysts expect OPEC+ to continue their cautious approach, with Saudi likely to continue their voluntary 1 million b/d cuts.

But the meeting is not expected to be as straightforward as some analysts expect.

Sources said Russia has asked for another small increase in its quota, lack of compliance by some members remains a sore spot, and the countries must also decide on the length of a deal, whether to set production levels for just one month or more.

"The only thing that could alarm OPEC delegates is the continued recovery of US oil production, which according to the [EIA] climbed last week to 11.1 million barrels per day, its highest level since May," said Eugen Weinberg, a senior commodity analyst at Commerzbank said.

Producers from outside the organization, meanwhile, are expected to grow supply by 1 million b/d, compared to 700,000 b/d previously forecast, according to OPEC data.

The EIA data, released on March 30, had some bullish news. US commercial crude inventories had fallen 880,000 barrels in the week ended March 26 to 501.84 million barrels. The draw in inventories came as total net crude input climbed 3.8% to 14.94 million b/d, the highest since the week ended March 20, 2020, and as refinery utilization reached 83.9% of total capacity, up 2.3 percentage points from the week prior.