NGLs, Crude Oil, Maritime & Shipping

March 10, 2025

CERAWEEK: New Canada pipelines depend on federal elections: Alberta premier

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HIGHLIGHTS

New PM elect is unlikely to back new pipelines

Alberta to support US ‘energy dominance’

The outlook for building new oil and gas pipelines in Canada will depend on federal elections at the parliamentary level after the selection of climate-focused Mark Carney to lead the Liberal Party and become the country's next prime minister, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith said March 10.

Carney "has been responsible for net-zero banking and has been on a war path against the energy industry," Smith told reporters on the sidelines of CERAWeek by S&P Global. "His aspiration has been to keep fossil fuels in the ground and I don't know if he has changed his tune quickly. But he needs to, as the world needs more Alberta oil and gas."

Smith said a clearer picture will emerge for Alberta's oil sector following federal elections in Canada that are due to be held no later than Oct. 20 to elect members of a new House of Commons.

Carney was elected late March 9 as the new leader of the ruling Liberal Party, effectively making him the prime minister designate. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced Jan. 6 his intention to resign following the election of a new party leader.

The Liberal Party has been know for its policy of opposing new pipelines being built in Canada.

"Elections will give the clear mandate for a new a prime minister for the next four years as we go through this turbulent time with the US," Smith said.

Despite trade tensions between Canada and the US, Alberta is still on track to add new production capacity remain a competitive jurisdiction in North America, and attract investments, Smith said.

US President Donald Trump announced a 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports but has put the measure on hold until April 2.

S&P Global Commodity Insights expects Alberta's crude oil, NGLs and condensates to grow to 5.826 million b/d by 2030, compared with 5.711 million b/d in 2025.

Alberta backs US 'energy dominance'

Smith said Alberta is also willing to contribute to the US' goal of energy dominance.

"Alberta's energy has been a part of the US marketplace for more than 70 years and the story has been of one of prosperity and inter-dependence even as both nations go through a little bit of turmoil in relations," she said.

Alberta is the single-largest supplier of oil to the US at about 4.3 million b/d, which feeds nearly 50 US refineries primarily in the US Midwest and the US Gulf Coast, Smith said.

"So you might say, that Alberta's oil allows for the US to export more oil internationally. Besides crude oil, the province also exports almost 5 Bcf/d of natural gas. We do need to have an understanding of the shared historical, social and vast industrial integration of our oil and gas networks and Alberta is and will continue to supply energy to the US and support American ambition of global energy dominance," she said.

Alberta will control its own destiny for energy resources and is on an expansion path, Smith said, reiterating the need to have additional Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin egress and more pipeline capacity, Smith said.

"There is no question we need to move quickly to ensure that regulatory impediments and permitting challenges in the past are changed quickly and we want to get more products to the East and West coast of Canada and the Northern coast as well. We need to find new markets for that oil and want to be a secure supplier for our European and Asian allies. The need to seek out new markets and clients is very clear for Alberta's oil and expand egress by rail and ships to unlock more opportunities for investments," she said.

Editor:

Meghan Gordon