India faces climate policy dilemma under renewable energy ramp-up: BP economist

India is facing a major growth in its fossil fuel-fired power generation in the coming years even if it hits ambitious targets to ramp up renewable energy, a prospect which is underpinning an increasing sense of "frustration and anger" in developing economies, BP chief economist Spencer Dale said Feb. 27.

India, one of the world's biggest oil importers, hopes to triple its renewable power generation capacity by 2030 to around 500 GW under clean energy targets.

Even if that happens, the country will still need to boost coal- and/or gas-fired generation to meet forecasts of energy demand growth, Dale said. The target would require installing about 50 GW of solar and wind every year to 2030, he noted.

"Even if they did that and they put everything into power demand, they would still only meet 75% of the expected growth in power demand to 2030," Dale told the International Energy Week event in London.

"To meet that demand you would need either a 20% increase in coal-fired generation or a tripling of gas-fired generation. That is what they mean about imposing Western blueprints on developing economies."

Dale said the reflection followed a recent meeting with high-level energy officials in India over what would be required to meet net-zero targets in the country.

"The main theme was a spectrum of frustration and anger about the West imposing their climate solutions on the world," Dale said. "So, financing is a challenge, the lending standards of banks and financial institutions ... Are you imposing the Western blueprint or are you engaging with their needs and arithmetic as they face the energy challenge?" he said.

Dale's comments come as India launched negotiations for full membership of the International Energy Agency, hailed as a "revolutionary" outcome by the IEA last month.

After a recent landmark ministerial meeting commemorating its 50th anniversary, the IEA said it was exploring a new horizon tasked with bolstering global energy security by possibly taking in India as a new member while ringing alarm bells to accelerate climate steps.