OPEC+ holds Jan crude output steady as it waits for market clarity

OPEC+ crude production in January rose slightly month over month, as countries with quotas continued to struggle to meet their targets, the latest Platts OPEC+ Survey from S&P Global Commodity Insights showed Feb. 11.

OPEC+ produced 40.54 million b/d in January, up 20,000 b/d from December volumes.

OPEC+ crude producers with quotas pumped 71,000 b/d above target, compared to overproduction of 23,000 b/d in December, according to the survey.

For months, quota compliance has been closely scrutinized, according to delegates, which has challenged the group's ability to shore up oil prices.

Kazakhstan -- one of the group's serial overproducers -- posted the biggest output growth in January after expansion at the Tengiz project brought additional volumes on-stream mid-month.

This pushed OPEC+ output up 40,000 b/d month over month to 13.85 million b/d.

Drops in output in Nigeria, Iran and Venezuela pushed the core OPEC group's output down by 20,000 b/d to 26.69 million b/d.

The alliance's two biggest producers, Saudi Arabia and Russia, were under their target of 8.978 million b/d, producing 8.97 million b/d and 8.96 million b/d, respectively.

OPEC+ is maintaining output at a time when uncertainty over Chinese demand and US trade policy is complicating market forecasting.

So far, the group's crude output cuts have had a muted impact on prices.

Platts assessed Dated Brent at $76.125/b on Feb. 10 -- below many OPEC+ producers' fiscal breakeven oil prices and down from 2025 highs of $83/b in mid-January.

Prices could be volatile in the coming months, as oil markets digest the impact of US President Donald Trump's major changes to US trade and sanctions policy. The US president has vowed to impose maximum pressure on Iran and has threatened new tariffs and sanctions on Russia to end the war in Ukraine.

Trump has also toyed with imposing sanctions on key crude exporters Canada and Mexico, potentially roiling oil markets.

OPEC+ is implementing crude output cuts totaling 5.8 million b/d, including 2.2 million b/d of voluntary cuts. The group currently plans to gradually ease the voluntary cuts from April, but it could change policy depending on market conditions.

The next meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee that oversees the OPEC+ production agreement is scheduled for April 5. A full OPEC+ ministerial meeting is slated for May 28.

The Platts survey measures wellhead production and is compiled using information from oil industry officials, traders and analysts, as well as by reviewing proprietary shipping, satellite and inventory data.