US DATA: Propane, propylene stocks drop below 61 million barrels, exports rebound

US propane and propylene inventories fell for the 12th straight week, dropping 2.018 million barrels and coming close but not quite meeting forecasts by analysts from S&P Global Commodity Insights, according to production, inventory and export data released by the US Energy Information Administration Feb. 7.

Inventories fell to 60.577 million barrels, marking the 12th straight week of inventory draws since early to mid-November, according to the EIA data. With the decline, propane and propylene inventories fell to lows not seen since late April 2023, when stocks drew to 58.292 million barrels.

The inventory drop was under forecasts by S&P Global Commodity Insights analysts, who projected inventory draws at a little more than 2.5 million barrels.

"The combination of the continuous demand slowdown after the sharp mid-January spike and recovering supply would keep the late January stock draw under control at half of the previous week's total," the analysts said Feb. 5.

Total demand, which includes exports and domestic supplied product, was unable to meet analyst forecasts, falling 399,000 b/d to 2.93 million b/d. Analysts had forecasted a more minor 212,000 b/d decrease.

Propane and propylene exports were expected to rebound after a prior week that saw exports fall 621,000 b/d. EIA data showed exports did rebound, growing 292,000 b/d to 1.69 million b/d.

Due to the export recovery, domestic product supplied fell, decreasing 691,000 b/d to 1.240 million b/d.

"It is noted that domestic heating demand is not falling off a cliff as reflected in the limited week-on-week demand drop," the analysts said. "The heating degree days for late January have fallen significantly from the mid-January spike, but the demand drop is expected to be cushioned by some storage refilling activities."

Production, meanwhile, inched upward, rising 67,000 b/d to 2.495 million b/d as they moved closer to early January levels.

The EIA data came as Platts last assessed propane at the Enterprise terminal down 3.25 cents to 92.25 cents/gal, the lowest mark since Jan. 30.