CHINA DATA: 2024 crude throughput falls 2% to 14.19 mil b/d; GDP grows 5%

China's crude throughput fell 1.9% year over year to 14.19 million b/d (708.43 million mt) in 2024, while the country's gross domestic product growth met its 5% target, according to the National Bureau of Statistics on Jan. 17.

This came as crude throughput in December fell 1.8% month over month to 14.03 million b/d, the lowest since the 13.97 million b/d recorded in August, NBS data showed.

State-owned refineries are the main contributors of the month-over-month reduction in December as 21 of the 50 state-owned refineries, covered by S&P Global Commodity Insights, cut their respective utilization rates in December by one to eight percentage points from November.

As a result, 50 of China's state-run refineries and four mega private plants targeted to process 10.42 million b/d of crude in December, down from 10.54 million b/d in November, Commodity Insights data showed.

NBS releases data in metric tons, which Commodity Insights converts to barrels using a 7.33 conversion factor. On a metric-ton basis, crude throughput in December rose 1.4% month over month to 59.35 million mt, while the volume for 2024 fell 1.6% year over year to 708.43 million mt.

The bureau collects the data from refineries with annual income of more than Yuan 20 million ($2.73 million) for their current throughput and the volume in the corresponding month in 2023, it said in the release.

These refineries that NBS covered for December cut their throughput by 1.1% year over year, according to NBS. This suggested these plants processed 13.95 million b/d in December 2023, which was lower than the 14.17 million b/d that NBS initially reported in January 2024 for December 2025.

"We think it is more likely for the NBS' growth numbers to reflect some survivorship bias, with most of the discrepancies occuring in Shandong and Liaoning provinces, rather than downward revisions to prior year figures," said Grace Lee, a senior analyst with Commodity Insights AltView.

Similarly, the annual reduction of 1.9% suggested the refineries, which NBS covered in 2024, processed 14.46 million b/d of crude in 2023. The volume was lower than the initial report of 14.76 million b/d.

Jan throughput unlikely to jump

Looking forward, China was unlikely to boost throughput significantly in January from December as new sanctions and blacklists disrupt feedstock imports, market analysts said.

Independent refineries, particularly the teapots in Shandong, were expected to cut throughput due to tight feedstock supplies as the Shandong Port Group blacklists sanctioned vessels while the US and UK extended the sanction list. The rising tax costs of processing fuel oil has dampened utilization at the teapots which have no access to imported crudes.

The state-run refineries would lift their throughput slightly to compensate for the reduction from the teapots. But the stockpile demand ahead of the Lunar New Year is going to end, capping their interest to further boost utilization.

In 2025, China's crude throughput is projected to rebound from the 2024 slump, as refining capacity of the world's second-largest oil consumer increases further despite some shutdowns at teapots.

Commodity Insights expects China's crude runs to increase 292,000 b/d in 2025, while Sinopec's Economic & Development Research Institute estimates a larger increase of 516,000 b/d.

However, Commodity Insights adjusted downward China's GDP forecast for 2025 to 4.2% from the previous 4.6%, owing to anticipated 30% tariffs on US imports from China, which will undermine exports, the job market and private sector confidence.

In the upstream sector, China produced 4.26 million b/d (212.82 million mt) of crude in 2024, up 1.5% year over year on a barrels-per-day basis, driven by state-run oil companies' efforts to boost production.

The country's crude output in December recovered to 4.23 million b/d (17.9 million mt) after the typhoon season, the highest since the same level seen in July.

Commodity Insights expected domestic crude production to rise by 27,000 b/d in 2025, while Sinopec's EDRI projected to go up by 53,000 b/d.

China's crude output, throughput in December

China's crude output, throughput in 2024

Source: National Bureau of Statistics